Although I rarely recommend a chalk on the money line, Texas is now a value price and could be used as a parlay piece or a straight bet. The Longhorns opened nearly a touchdown favorite and in the -300 ML range. The spread and price have dropped enough to provide value on the Longhorns, who could struggle with surging Kansas State but should still prevail.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy made his first career start in place of the injured Quinn Ewers and passed for 170 yards and two touchdowns in defeating BYU 35-6. However, Murphy also had one interception and lost a fumble. He now takes a significant step up in class as Kansas State is one of six Power Five teams that rank in the top 15 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Currently, the Wildcats are ranked 13th in scoring (37.4) and 14th in points allowed (15.9) as they look to snap a six-game losing skid in this series. Kansas State is ranked ninth (55%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas is ranked 83rd (40%). An outright upset wouldn’t shock me. Grab the points!

This should be a hell of a game, both teams align so much both offensively and defensively. That said, this is a Sarkisian game and he knows it, he was brought to Texas just for games like this. Not to put an entire bet riding on the head coach, but he's been through the hell before and risen from it. He has the better team, he has the home field advantage. This is where you simply handle your business and Sark knows it.

I give the Wildcats at least a 50% chance to win this game, which means you're getting strong value at this number. Kansas State has been red-hot since going to the two-quarterback attack three weeks ago, and Texas will be playing its backup quarterback, Maalik Murphy. Moreover, Texas has struggled scoring touchdowns in the red zone this season (48.5%, 122nd in the country), while Kansas State ranks third in the nation in red zone touchdown defense (30.0%) this season. Give me two units on the money line.

Texas back-up QB Maalik Murphy made the most of his first start last week against BYU but things will get a bit tougher this week against Will Howard and Kansas State who have won and covered their last three games. Texas has won the last six meetings and Texas is 7-1 this season with a defense that allows only 328 ypg. It’s in that defense and at home that I see Texas covering a number that deserves to be 4-points higher. I’m on Texas to cover.

This is ticking up so let's grab it before it's north of -200 across the board. It's probably a Big 12 title game eliminator for the loser. K-State has looked terrific in a three-game winning streak but also against three of the weaker teams in the conference. Both KSU losses were away. Chris Kleiman has yet to beat Texas.

The Wildcats arguably are playing the best ball of any team in the Big 12 right now. They've outscored their opponents 82-3 over the last two weeks and have looked like a different team since going to the two-quarterback attack with Will Howard and Avery Johnson. Meanwhile Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy will be making his first start against a quality opponent. Last week against BYU, he committed two turnovers and easily could've had another pass intercepted. I'd play the Wildcats down to +3. Two units.