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You are looking at what is believed to be the lowest total in CFB annals. (Yes, below even the usual microscopic one for Army-Navy.) Every element points to a super-low score: Iowa's peerless defense and pathetic offense, injuries to key players on both offenses, possible high winds. But, c'mon, 30.5 points? Maybe the strong defenses can help out with a pick-six or scoop-and-six. Perhaps the special teams can create a score. Hopes and analysis aside, the presumed rock-bottom total of all time calls for an Over.
This is the lowest total since at least 2000 but there is good reason why. These are two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten, maybe even the country. They rank 3rd and 4th to last in passing yards per game only ahead of Navy and Air Force who have elite rushing offenses. This will be a windy day in Iowa which will make the offenses even worse. Expect an unbelievably low final score. Take the under.
I'd rather watch Jello molds race uphill than this game (I'd back purple/grape for sure but presuming it would be a push across the board). I like to win and also like money. I'm sure you do as well. Have to say on this play, it's almost to the point of self-entertainment this total is so laughably low. They can't score 14 points each and get to OT? History does say lean Under, but I can't even while secretly hoping it does end 0-0 in regulation. The last scoreless tie as such was I believe Wake Forest-Virginia Tech in 2014. What was funny is that they still couldn't do jack in OT as it finished 6-3 in 2 OTs.
This total has been steamed down from 36.5, but that hasn't scared away the market, as the under 32.5 holds 43% of tickets and 85% of handle. Minnesota plays at the 125th slowest pace in country (29.9 seconds/play) while Iowa is 99th (27.8 seconds/play). Both offenses are as bad as they look, ranking Bottom 20 in EPA/play. It'll be hard for them to get into scoring territory, as both special teams/defensive units rank Top 15 in the field position battle -- pinning opponents, on average, at their own 24.
We are going under 32.5 - This rivalry started in 1891 with Minnesota leading the series 62-52-2 because they won the first 12. Last week with Deacon Hill starting at QB for Iowa (their #1 QB Cade McNamara is out for the year) the Hawkeyes ran the ball 48 times with just 14 pass attempts. Hill was six for 14 for just 37 yards. Minnesota runs the ball 64% of the time, ranking 8th most in college football. Iowa’s offense ranks 128th in the country in yards per play and remember the majority of snaps was with McNamara. Minnesota’s offense ranks 120th. Both teams play at a very slow pace. This one has 13-10 written all over it.
Iowa QB Deacon Hill has done exactly what Kirk Ferentz likes from his QB after Cade McNamara got hurt. Nothing flashy, limit turnovers and get the win. This game will be played mostly between the 35-yard lines. Three straight for the Hawkeyes who have also beaten Minnesota eight straight, covering seven of them. This total will be hard to get Over the total, but for a home game, this is a cheap price for the better team, which is the 6-1 Hawkeyes to win, money-line.
Iowa has won their last three games and scored 61 points while allowing only 36 points. However, they were outgained in all three games by 1,016 to 750, which is a cause for concern. This will be their eighth consecutive game without rest, and they might already be thinking about their upcoming BYE week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is seeking revenge after their 52-10 loss and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite being outgained 399-280. I am all over the road dog, especially with such a low total.