Jonathan Smith has done a great job building Oregon State up to being not just competitive, but a threat to some of the better programs in the Pac-12. USC under Lincoln Riley has hit the ground running, putting up at least 41 points in each of its three game so far. I think the Beavers will hang around in this one and make it a four quarter battle, but I like the Trojans by at least a TD in the end.

Oregon State went 5-1 against-the-spread and straight-up last season at home, but the Beavers didn’t play a team as talented as USC. The Trojans look like Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma teams, and I don’t think Oregon State can keep up with them offensively. I think Oregon State will be able to move the ball, but the Trojans have come up with key turnovers over their first few games, and my model likes USC to win the turnover margin. I am going to trust USC’s talent level until the Trojans prove me wrong.

Word from Las Vegas is that the sharps are gravitating toward Oregon State, which makes this surprisingly modest spread fetching to those who have sided ATS with USC for all three wins. The Trojans are flexing a 10-0 turnover advantage this season. Takeaways tend to even out over the long haul, but perhaps not in the case of the ball-hawking Trojans. QB Caleb Williams had done his part with precise passing. Prior to the Beavers’ win last year during USC’s dysfunctional season, the Trojans took four straight in the series by three-score margins at minimum. Their improbably road to the playoffs might end eventually but not here.

Look, I'm probably not going unbeaten on leaning Under totals higher than 70 all season and may actually skip one that has such a number this week (TCU-SMU), but I'm going to win WAY more than I lose. All we need are a couple of stops on both sides. Yes, these teams are combining for about 96 points per game, but Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith has to know he can't win a shootout against Caleb Williams & Co. so I expect a lot more ball control where possible. The Beavers have won seven consecutive games at Reser Stadium and are averaging 234.1 yards rushing during the streak. That's how you chew clock.

This may be the first real test for USC this season, as Oregon State has already proven that last season was not a fluke and are looking like a formidable contender in the Pac-12 this season. What I like most about USC in this game is how their offense is in midseason mode, led by QB Caleb Williams, and their defense is starting to come together nicely and are beginning to get those key stops necessary in ball games. Oregon State will keep this one competitive early, but look for the Trojans to pull away in the 2nd half.