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Tue, Dec 288:15 pm UTCGerald J. Ford Stadium
78 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Air Force
Falcons
AF
Last 5 ATS
W/L9-3
ATS9-3
O/U6-6-0
FINAL SCORE
--
-
--
Louisville
Cardinals
LVILLE
Last 5 ATS
W/L6-7
ATS6-7
O/U6-7-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
9-3
Win /Loss
6-7
9-3
Spread
6-7
6-6-0
Over / Under
6-7-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
AF @ LVILLE
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MONEYLINE
AF @ LVILLE
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OVER / UNDER
AF @ LVILLE
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0%
PUBLIC
0%
MONEY
0%
PUBLIC
0%
MONEY
Over0%
PUBLIC
Under0%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Expert's PickAir Force PK -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1628.5
74-53-1 in Last 128 NCAAF Picks
+965
13-3 in Last 16 NCAAF ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- I had no plans to play this game but now will because Louisville leading rusher (running back version) Jalen Mitchell is out. He carried 155 times for 722 yards and five scores -- that puts even more pressure on dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham (who actually leads in rushing). No Mitchell should make it easier for Air Force to completely focus on Cunningham defensively. The AFA ranks No. 7 nationally against the rush.

Pick Made: Dec 28, 6:38 pm UTC on WHNJ
Expert's PickLouisville +1 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+824
29-19-1 in Last 49 NCAAF Sides Picks
+713
21-13-2 in Last 36 NCAAF ATS Picks
Zack's Analysis:

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- Sometimes there are teams that barely make a bowl game, at 6-6, and are better than their .500 record indicates. Louisville is a team that fits that description. The Cardinals had two ACC losses by three points or fewer and had three strong non-conference tests against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Central Florida. I think Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham utilizes his four years of experience and gives Air Force trouble. Play Louisville.

Pick Made: Dec 28, 5:09 pm UTC on WHNJ
Expert's PickUnder 55 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2137
59-34-2 in Last 95 NCAAF Picks
+500
15-9-1 in Last 25 NCAAF O/U Picks
Barrett's Analysis:

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL — The Falcons are, by far, the best rushing team in the nation. But option-based offenses are easier to prepare for with multiple weeks to prepare, and the Cardinals will have enough success to force some empty possessions. The Cards like to run the ball with quarterback Malik Cunningham, so the clock will keep ticking for the majority of this one.

Pick Made: Dec 27, 6:44 pm UTC on WHNJ
Expert's PickOver 55 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1689
58-37 in Last 95 NCAAF Picks
+90
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAF O/U Picks
Mike's Analysis:

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- When facing opponents often unfamiliar with its triple-option offense, Air Force engages in high-scoring bowl games. In the past decade, four postseason contests (out of six) resulted in 83, 62, 71 and 66 points. Louisville’s only bowl with coach Scott Satterfield finished at 66 points. Both sides have effective ground games — the Falcons’ is the top-ranked in FBS — and Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham is a dynamic playmaker.

Pick Made: Dec 27, 5:48 pm UTC on WHNJ
Expert's PickAir Force +1.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+932
15-7-1 in Last 23 NCAAF Picks
+850
14-5 in Last 19 NCAAF ATS Picks
Jeff's Analysis:

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (No. 37 vs. 98) and overall defense (No. 47 vs. 71). That travels well this time of year. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.

Pick Made: Dec 25, 2:17 pm UTC on WHNJ

Team Injuries

Air Force Falcons
Sunday, Oct 13, 2024
Avatar
FB
Roman Bradley
Undisclosed
Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025
Avatar
QB
Quentin Hayes
Undisclosed
Thursday, Jan 30, 2025
Avatar
FB
Terrence Gist
Undisclosed
Louisville Cardinals
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024
Avatar
DB
Benjamin Perry
Transfer Portal
Thursday, Jan 09, 2025
Avatar
TE
Jamari Johnson
Ankle

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
70%
7-3-1
6-5
54%
On Road or Neutral
LOCATION
On Road or Neutral
80%
4-1-1
3-2
60%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
67%
6-3-1
3-3
50%
When Spread was -3 to +1
SPREAD
When Spread was -1 to +3
33%
1-2-1
1-0
100%
Favored on Road or Neutral
LOCATION & STATUS
As Road Underdog
75%
3-1-1
2-2
50%
vs Teams That Win <50% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >70% of Games
100%
4-0
2-0
100%
vs Teams Allowing 25 to 32 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG
75%
3-1-1
3-3
50%
After >8 Days Off
REST
After >8 Days Off
70%
7-3-1
6-5
54%
vs LVILLE
HEAD TO HEAD
vs AF
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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