FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- I had no plans to play this game but now will because Louisville leading rusher (running back version) Jalen Mitchell is out. He carried 155 times for 722 yards and five scores -- that puts even more pressure on dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham (who actually leads in rushing). No Mitchell should make it easier for Air Force to completely focus on Cunningham defensively. The AFA ranks No. 7 nationally against the rush.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- Sometimes there are teams that barely make a bowl game, at 6-6, and are better than their .500 record indicates. Louisville is a team that fits that description. The Cardinals had two ACC losses by three points or fewer and had three strong non-conference tests against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Central Florida. I think Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham utilizes his four years of experience and gives Air Force trouble. Play Louisville.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL — The Falcons are, by far, the best rushing team in the nation. But option-based offenses are easier to prepare for with multiple weeks to prepare, and the Cardinals will have enough success to force some empty possessions. The Cards like to run the ball with quarterback Malik Cunningham, so the clock will keep ticking for the majority of this one.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- When facing opponents often unfamiliar with its triple-option offense, Air Force engages in high-scoring bowl games. In the past decade, four postseason contests (out of six) resulted in 83, 62, 71 and 66 points. Louisville’s only bowl with coach Scott Satterfield finished at 66 points. Both sides have effective ground games — the Falcons’ is the top-ranked in FBS — and Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham is a dynamic playmaker.

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (No. 37 vs. 98) and overall defense (No. 47 vs. 71). That travels well this time of year. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.