My model says the wrong team is favored here. Louisiana is covering 60 percent of simulations and wins by three, according to the model. And why not? The Ragin' Cajuns beat the Mountaineers by 28 earlier in the season in Lafayette, and the teams will meet in Lafayette again on Saturday. I think Louisiana coach Billy Napier, who's leaving for Florida, and senior quarterback Levi Lewis will badly want to leave Louisiana as Sun Belt champs. Take the Cajuns.

Is this a trap? It feels like a trap. Well, maybe I'm about to have an anvil drop on my head, or maybe I'm just getting tremendous value. The Cajuns crushed the Mountaineers earlier this season in Boone, and are now hosting them for the Sun Belt title. I know Billy Napier is about to leave for Florida, but he hasn't left yet, and the Cajuns have been the better team all season long.

The Mountaineers have not only won six in a row outright, but the margins have been substantial: 24 to 38 points. The Cajuns have kept winning, too, but by lesser spreads. App State’s multiple turnovers committed against Louisiana should not be repeated. Louisiana coach Billy Napier might be spread thin as he has one foot out the door to become Florida's new coach.

The last time Appalachian State lost was at Louisiana back on October 12th. That was a 28-point beatdown of the Mountaineers. The Rajin' Cajuns have been the best team in the Sun Belt all season long. Their only loss this season came at Texas in the season opener. Coach Billy Napier is leaving for the Florida job after this game. Expect his team to send him out with a Sun Belt title.

Already picked the side on this game, and I see no reason to wait on this total as I only expect it to go down. These clubs rank 13th and 14th nationally in scoring defense. Louisiana has allowed more than 20 points just once in its past five, while App State has only allowed 17 points over the last three games. The first meeting between these clubs in October saw 54 points scored, but that was because the Mountaineers kept uncharacteristically turning the ball over. The Under is 14-2 in UL's past 16 at home.

Interesting that Louisiana is getting three points for the Sun Belt title game on its home field, the same place it wiped out Appalachian State 41-13 on Oct. 12. Granted, App State is playing much better now, but UL is just a different animal at home under Billy Napier -- and this will be his final game there after accepting the Florida job (presuming he won't coach in a bowl game). I guess there are two ways of looking at Napier leaving regarding this game: The players will all be down ... or really eager to send him out a winner. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.