The spread’s dip to a touchdown makes the Cornhuskers an obvious play. New coach Bret Bielema might right the Illini’s ship eventually, but rebuilding is the byword now for a team whose defense ranked 114th in the FBS in yards allowed and bade farewell to key offensive performers. Illinois was outscored a whopping 14.8 points per outing in 2020. An adjustment period looms for the defense as it switches from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. For Nebraska, QB Adrian Martinez has fallen short of expectations. Entering his fourth year as a starter, he should have the confidence to dissect a reassembled defense.

There are reasons to be concerned about both teams in this matchup, but the area that concerns me most is the defensive transition for the Illini. They're going from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 on the defensive side of the ball, and we've seen plenty of programs have difficulty making that adjustment. I expect the Illini defense to struggle against the Cornhuskers.

This line has dropped back to 6.5 at some books, so let's go ahead and jump now. I'm not sure that Nebraska should be a 7-point road favorite over any Big Ten team considering how much it has underachieved under Scott Frost. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS when favored under Frost and were blasted last year at home by Illinois, which should be better-coached in 2021 under Bret Bielema. It's a very veteran team with three super seniors along on the offensive line and a senior QB in Brandon Peters.

There’s always a concern that teams will come out sluggish in the opener, and the combination of Nebraska’s distractions and the new regime at Illinois under first-year coach Bret Bielema will lead to a feeling out process early during Saturday’s matchup. That will result in empty drives, field goals instead of touchdowns and an ultra-low scoring affair deep into the second half. This will be a game of mistakes, not big plays.

Brandon Peters was tabbed as the starting quarterback by Illinois first-year coach Bret Bielema on Monday, which solidified my stance that the Fighting Illini won't just cover but win this Big Ten opener outright. Peters, who threw a combined 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions over the last two seasons, is a perfect fit for what Bielema wants to do on offense. Conversely, Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez has a 14:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last two seasons and hasn't come close to living up to his one-time hype. What's more, Huskers coach Scott Frost has come under fire recently with the NCAA breathing down his neck. Grab those points and enjoy the free money.

Perhaps the worst loss of Nebraska head coach Scott Frost’s playing or coaching career was last season getting beaten 41-23 by Illinois in Lincoln. Most of those same Illini players are back, including their four best defensive players who came back as fifth-year seniors. Sixth-year senior QB Brandon Peters is also back. He led the balanced attack with an offense committing no turnovers in their big win. It's a new coaching staff (Bret Bielema as head coach) with Illinois, new optimism in home opener.