I have a rather simple philosophy when it comes to betting games featuring service academies. First, we look to the Under. If we don't like the total, we move to Plan B. Fade academies as favorites and take them as dogs. Army is 10-15-1 as a home favorite under Jeff Monken, and is going against an MTSU team that will have the best QB on the field. So take the points.

Teams plan all year to play Army West Point and still struggle to stop their triple option. While Middle Tennessee has plenty of talent, it goes into this game on short notice with limited preparation time for the coaches and limited practice time for the players. Expect to see plenty of ball control offense from the Black Knights as per usual. Remember, the Army offense does not change much year to year, so the guys coming back are largely doing the same thing they did last year. In a Week 1 game, I'll go with the short favorite -- though I wish I got it earlier in the week when it was under a field goal.

The Army offense is licking its chops. The Blue Raiders, whose defense was rock-bottom in the C-USA and sends out mostly new starters, confront an option offense that is unfamiliar to them. In last year’s matchup, the Black Knights maintained ball possession for about two-thirds of the clock. MTSU’s top two RBs opted out this season and what’s left of its quick-tempo offense cannot score from the sidelines.

Defensively, Middle Tennessee State has an excellent safety in Gregory Grate Jr., who I expect to have an extremely active role against Army. What is troubling about this matchup is that the Blue Raiders' defense has had to replace seven starters, and this matchup against Army wasn't originally on the schedule as it was a replacement game for a contest cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. It's tough to prepare for the triple option on such short notice, especially after not practicing in the spring and having truncated summer workouts.