If you read today's premium newsletter (sign up), then you know I am actually rooting for Michigan basketball for the first time in my life -- simply to hopefully see U-M vs. Michigan State in the Elite Eight and facing off in the Dance for the first time. Football, I never root for the Ann Arbor fools except vs. even more-hated Ohio State (I root for a postponement/hail/Old Testament locusts). So I win either way here. But I do think Michigan's two 7-footers are going to cause problems for Auburn's 38-year-old Johni Broome, who is a fabulous college player but not much of a pro prospect because he really can't shoot outside the paint and too much of a tweener to fit in the NBA.

What makes the M so intriguing in Atlanta is how the Wolverines have been winning games, effectively for most of the season. Michigan has won 11 straight games decided by 4 points or fewer. Though there are some heavy losses the past two months, Michigan looks again on a roll as it was around New Year's. The unique combo of 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, and their screen-and-roll plays with Wolf an effective point-center, has the potential to unnerve. Guard Tre Donaldson is also rolling after his numbers dropped from mid-January into March. Has Auburn has lost a little steam, closing the regular season with losses in three of four, and struggling for covers last weekend? Play Michigan (NCAA at Atlanta).

This seems like a lot of points for Auburn to be laying. They haven’t been performing like the number one overall seed, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The Wolverines have won and covered their last five games and have the big men in the middle to compete on the glass. Yes, Auburn is the deeper team, and the Wolverines have struggled mightily with turnovers this season, but their guards have been defending at a high level. Dusty May is an excellent coach who has proven he can make a deep run in this tournament and keep this one close.

Dusty May's first year at Michigan is finally paying dividends where they've won and covered their last five games beginning with beating Purdue, Maryland, and winning the Big Ten title against Wisconsin. Then the last two games of the NCAA tournament against San Diego and Texas A&M. This looks like Florida Atlantic with May coaching the last 2 years the way Michigan is playing, and that includes their field goal percentage (47.1%) and holding teams to 40%. They are defending well and taking smart shots, same as FAU did, and they're in the Sweet 16 now. Auburn's struggling. They seem right for an upset as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six, losing three outright. Michigan to cover.

DraftKings is hanging a 9.5 in this game while the rest of the market is at 8.5. The Wolverines closed on a 25-9 run against Texas A&M, showing their offensive versatility against a tough Aggies' defense. They committed just nine turnovers all game, a great number for them. They've obviously got the size to match up here, but their improved guard play and high-level coaching gives them a real shot at the upset. The Tigers covered against Creighton, ending a five-game ATS skid. They should advance but it won't be easy. Michigan's ability to cover Johni Broome with one post player, as opposed to doubling, will be key.