Alabama did enough to survive and advance in the first round, and will be tested by a tough St. Mary's team on Sunday. The Gaels are outstanding on the defensive end, but they haven't played a team that can push the pace like the Tide. I expect this game to be close early, with the Tide pulling away in the second half.

This is clash of styles, as Saint Mary’s wants a slower game, and the Crimson Tide want to push the pace. Alabama has been shaky all season and have difficulty on defense. They also rely on second chance opportunities which may be tough against the Gaels who are 9th in the nation in defensive rebounding and 2nd in offensive rebounding. Saint Mary’s will want to slow this game down and take the Crimson Tide out of their element.

Matchups look awkward for the Gaels, a much different challenge for SMC than what the it has been used to seeing in the WCC (or, vs Vandy on Friday). Even when the cylinders weren't all firing on Friday vs. Robert Morris, the Tide still scored 90 points. Keeping pace with Mark Sears (18. ppg) and the four other Tide double-digit scorers will be tall order. Better news for Nate Oats was frontliner Grant Nelson on the floor for seven minutes of the second half vs. RMU on Friday and likely to be more featured on Sunday. The Tide also wouldn't be the first team to get a flat effort out of thee way in the first round of the Dance. Play Alabama (NCAA at Cleveland)

My simulations have Alabama favored by 8.5 against St. Mary's, a team that lacks depth and strength on the offensive end.

I think St. Mary's is getting too much respect. Here is the thing we need to understand: Gonzaga isn't very good. Beating the Zags twice is overrated. The Gaels' next-best win? Nebraska. St. Mary's looked awful against Vanderbilt, one of my lowest rated teams in the field. I know Bama struggled in Round 1 too but I don't think St. Mary's has enough offense to hurt them. The Gaels have a strong defense but Bama has scored 90+ points 19 times this year. The Gaels also rank 360th in bench minutes and could wear down in the second half if Alabama establishes its pace. I wanted 4.5 but will settle for 5.5.