The margins seem tight enough to give the Bruins a look. Similar teams; a plus for the Bruins could be 7-3 Aday Mara, who scored 10 in 20 minutes on Thursday vs. the Utags but had a brief injury scare in the second half; as long as he's okay, as reports suggest, his size could clog the middle where UT likes to do business. Mick Cronin's balanced roster usually has two or three players (Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey, Kobe Johnson most likely) to step up at any night, and the Vols looked a bit heavy-legged in the first-round non-cover vs. Wofford. Has the brutal conference race taken the starch out of these SEC reps, yet to overwhelm in the Dance? Play UCLA (NCAA at Lexington)

These teams are two sides of the same coin. Each allows 65.2 ppg. Each is 13-18 on Overs. Their pace of play is almost identical. UCLA ranks 310th in possessions per game, four spots ahead of Tennessee. Their coaches are maniacal with defense. If both teams keep the opponent below their norm, even by a fraction, the Under will score.

My Sims bring the number closer to -7 in this game for Tennessee. It’s a very comfortable (and slow) tempo, where the Vols can play their physical style and win with defense.

UCLA looked fantastic in Round 1 but this should be mostly a pro-Tennessee crowd on Saturday night in Lexington -- will be weird seeing all that orange there. Offense can come and go for any club,but with the Vols you pretty much can always be assured a terrific defensive effort. The Bruins are certainly no slouches on that end but UT is ranked No. 5 overall nationally by KenPom and UCLA No. 22. The Vols should have the best offensive player on the floor in Chaz Lanier, who is close to setting a single-season school record in 3-pointers made. Our model and many I've checked have UT by about five.

Even when Tennessee's having a rough day shooting the defense always bails them out and gets stingier. They allow 38.3% shooting which is third-best in the nation and they have the best perimeter defense allowing only 28% 3-point shooting a game. The Vols allow only 63 points per game which is pretty good being in the SEC with all those highest-scoring teams. With UCLA only allowing 65 points per game under the total is a good bet, but Tennessee still wins and covers. UCLA lost at home to Minnesota on February 18th as an 11-point favorite. Tennessee.