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Understanding Public and Money
North Carolina is averaging 80 points per game this season. The Aztecs have one of the better defenses in the country, 6th in the country in their opponent’s effective field goal percentage. San Diego State does not want to get into a track meet with the Tar Heels as they’re below average in tempo per game. The main concern for San Diego State is their offense. They’ve failed to score above 70 points in 14 games this season. The Tar Heels have heard the narrative that they shouldn’t be here, and the Mountain West Conference hasn’t been good ATS. With those narratives out there, this game should be tight, with both defenses stepping up.
Being worthy of being a tournament team is not a concern of North Carolina. I fully expect the Tar Heels to embrace the new life they have, when most had them on the outside of the tournament. They’ll get the draw of a San Diego State team that is lackluster in scoring efficiency and prone to droughts. Look for the Tar Heels to make a statement as they look to be the latest 11-seed to make some noise in the big dance.
North Carolina barely made the tournament but they made it because of their last 10 games when they won eight of them, losing twice to Duke. They made it because they covered eight of their last nine games and San Diego State is going to be in trouble. The Aztecs went 21-9 but only covered the spread in 12 of the games. North Carolina average is 80 points a game and San Diego State only allowed 63 per game and they defend well holding opponents to 37.8% shooting percentage but that's all they do well. They're not a good rebounding team and their offense is shaky. North Carolina wins and covers.
First Four game in Dayton. Most experts seemed to think UNC was going to be on the outside looking in for the Dance so maybe the Heels can take advantage of this second chance. They have won eight of 10 and may have beaten Duke on Friday if not for Jae'Lyn Withers making a Chris Webber-type mistake. SDSU is always a quality program but this isn't one of Brian Dutcher's best teams. It's a very guard-oriented team so the Heels have a size advantage especially with the uncertain status of Aztecs freshman 7-footer Magoon Gwath, who has missed five straight games due to injury. Sounds like he will try to play but probably be quite limited.