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Wed, Mar 191:10 am UTCUniversity of Dayton Arena
Track OnCBS Sports
North Carolina
Tar Heels
UNC
Last 5 ATS
W/L22-14
ATS16-21
O/U18-18-1
FINAL SCORE
95
-
68
San Diego State
Aztecs
SDGST
Last 5 ATS
W/L20-10
ATS11-19
O/U16-14-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
22-14
Win /Loss
20-10
16-21
Spread
11-19
18-18-1
Over / Under
16-14-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
UNC @ SDGST
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
UNC @ SDGST
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OVER / UNDER
UNC @ SDGST
Subscribers Only

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42%
PUBLIC
58%
MONEY
15%
PUBLIC
85%
MONEY
Over77%
PUBLIC
Under23%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Over / UnderUnder 143.5 -111
LOSS
Unit1.0
+502
16-10 in Last 26 NCAAB O/U Picks
Bob's Analysis:

North Carolina is averaging 80 points per game this season. The Aztecs have one of the better defenses in the country, 6th in the country in their opponent’s effective field goal percentage. San Diego State does not want to get into a track meet with the Tar Heels as they’re below average in tempo per game. The main concern for San Diego State is their offense. They’ve failed to score above 70 points in 14 games this season. The Tar Heels have heard the narrative that they shouldn’t be here, and the Mountain West Conference hasn’t been good ATS. With those narratives out there, this game should be tight, with both defenses stepping up.

Pick Made: Mar 18, 7:00 pm UTC on BetRivers
Point SpreadN. Carolina -4.5 -104
WIN
Unit1.0
+1395
71-51-4 in Last 126 NCAAB ATS Picks
+363
8-4-1 in Last 13 UNC ATS Picks
Zack's Analysis:

Being worthy of being a tournament team is not a concern of North Carolina. I fully expect the Tar Heels to embrace the new life they have, when most had them on the outside of the tournament. They’ll get the draw of a San Diego State team that is lackluster in scoring efficiency and prone to droughts. Look for the Tar Heels to make a statement as they look to be the latest 11-seed to make some noise in the big dance.

Pick Made: Mar 18, 1:38 am UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadN. Carolina -4.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+652
10-3-1 in Last 14 NCAAB Sides Picks
+552
9-3-1 in Last 13 NCAAB ATS Picks
+788
9-1 in Last 10 UNC ATS Picks
Micah's Analysis:

North Carolina barely made the tournament but they made it because of their last 10 games when they won eight of them, losing twice to Duke. They made it because they covered eight of their last nine games and San Diego State is going to be in trouble. The Aztecs went 21-9 but only covered the spread in 12 of the games. North Carolina average is 80 points a game and San Diego State only allowed 63 per game and they defend well holding opponents to 37.8% shooting percentage but that's all they do well. They're not a good rebounding team and their offense is shaky. North Carolina wins and covers.

Pick Made: Mar 17, 9:56 pm UTC on Caesars
Money LineN. Carolina -170
WIN
Unit0.5
+2796
82-41 in Last 123 NCAAB Picks
+2729.5
66-27 in Last 93 NCAAB ML Picks
+200
3-0 in Last 3 SDGST ML Picks
Matt's Analysis:

First Four game in Dayton. Most experts seemed to think UNC was going to be on the outside looking in for the Dance so maybe the Heels can take advantage of this second chance. They have won eight of 10 and may have beaten Duke on Friday if not for Jae'Lyn Withers making a Chris Webber-type mistake. SDSU is always a quality program but this isn't one of Brian Dutcher's best teams. It's a very guard-oriented team so the Heels have a size advantage especially with the uncertain status of Aztecs freshman 7-footer Magoon Gwath, who has missed five straight games due to injury. Sounds like he will try to play but probably be quite limited.

Pick Made: Mar 17, 12:21 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey

Team Injuries

North Carolina Tar Heels
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025
Avatar
G
Drake Powell
Pro Draft Prep
San Diego State Aztecs
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2025
Avatar
G
Reese Waters
Foot

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
42%
15-20
12-17
41%
On Road or Neutral
LOCATION
On Road or Neutral
40%
8-12
6-9
40%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
48%
12-13
4-6
40%
When Spread was -6.5 to -2.5
SPREAD
When Spread was +2.5 to +6.5
20%
1-4
2-3
40%
Favored on Road or Neutral
LOCATION & STATUS
As Road Underdog
45%
5-6
4-5
44%
vs Teams That Win >65% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 50-65% of Games
37%
6-10
4-5
44%
vs Teams Allowing <67 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >72 PPG
38%
5-8
3-5
37%
After 4+ Days Off
REST
After 4+ Days Off
50%
9-9
6-11
35%
vs SDGST
HEAD TO HEAD
vs UNC
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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