Kentucky should find a way through this against a TAM team that has played well lately but isn’t built to beat the surging Cats. Plus this will be a sort of home game for Big Blue. At 4.5 or 5 I liked laying the number but my simulations have KY 77% to win so there is value here.

My simulations make Kentucky -8 favorites in this matchup with Texas A&M. Kentucky has the rest advantage, good crowd support in Nashville, and distinct edges offensively and at the free throw line. Lay it at -5 or better.

Some books have this as high as -250. If UK is focused, it's not losing to Texas A&M in what will be a Big Blue-filled arena in Nashville. If UK is focused, it may not lose again this season -- it will be in my Final Four most likely. The Aggies have won four straight but against lesser competition. They probably clinched an at-large NCAA bid with Thursday's win over Ole Miss but obviously a quick turnaround while Kentucky is rested.

The Aggies put a lot into their Thursday win over Ole Miss, as they knew their NCAA Tournament chances hinged on a victory. Now they face a loaded and rested Kentucky team that is out to avenge a 97-92 overtime loss in College Station, Tex. The Wildcats are much improved since that loss, and they didn't have Adou Thiero in that game. Lay the points before this line climbs higher.