If Gonzaga was able to lure UCLA into a more up-tempo game than the Bruins prefer, UConn will be more than happy to get out and run and could have even more success offensively against a Zags defense that rates outside of the top 60 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both teams are averaging 81.7 points per game in the tournament, and I think we see a similar performance with a total that can hit 160.

I'd like Gonzaga to win, but the short turnaround sure seems to hugely benefit UConn because none of its key guys even played 30 minutes in a cakewalk over Arkansas in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga's two stars, Drew Timme and Julian Strawther, both played 38 in a back-and-forth war against UCLA. The Zags aren't very deep this year so any foul issues with either of those two and this might be a rout.

Gonzaga’s 12-game win streak is impressive, covering the spread in seven of them. But the Bulldogs' soft defense, very uncharacteristic of Gonzaga, has me concerned against Connecticut, which has won nine of its last 10 (8-2 ATS). The Huskies started the season on a 14-0 run, became my top-rated team and struggled a bit with Big East play but reverted to dominant UConn in February. Now the Huskies are my No. 2-rated team and have allowed 39% shooting in their last five while shooting 51% on their own. UConn is 13-1 ATS in non-conference games. I’m on the Huskies to cover.

Gonzaga is 29-0 when scoring 75 or more points in a game this season. When they don't, they're 2-5 (a good nugget to have if you're betting the money line or spread). UConn is 18-2 when scoring 75+ this season. In the teams' combined 72 games this season, they've exceeded the 75 point mark a staggering 51 times (70.8%). I think it's conceivable this game is played in the 80s with the top-scoring team in the country (Gonzaga) facing the 28th highest scoring team in the country (UConn). Take the Over with confidence.

Adem Bona's absence was critical in UCLA's loss to the Zags, as Drew Timme dominated with 36 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. Gonzaga had a whopping 16 offensive rebounds. That shouldn't happen against a bigger UConn side -- featuring Adama Sanogo, Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban -- that ranks 27th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage (78.0). Since Feb. 1, the Huskies have been the nation's best team in overall efficiency, reminiscent of the form they showed during their 14-0 start. They won't register a fourth straight NCAA Tournament blowout but should cover this small number. =