Both teams got spanked by 20-plus points in their conference tournaments. Mississippi State didn’t cover its final four games. Pittsburgh was the best cover team in college hoops, but the defense allowed 50% shooting in the past five games. Even so, the Bulldogs went 1-4 ATS in neutral-court games. I like Pitt to advance and cover.

The Bulldogs are coming into this game with a great resume over the last six weeks. They certainly look more battle tested with quality wins over tournament teams such as TCU, Missouri and Texas A&M. The Panthers, on the other hand, have stumbled down the stretch and revealed themselves to be largely pretenders. This should be a defensive battle with the Bulldogs, led by Tolu Smith, pulling away.

Mississippi State shoots a nation-worst 26.6 percent from deep. But Chris Jans' team defends like crazy (sixth nationally in efficiency, 39.4 percent shooting allowed). And 6-11 senior Tolu Smith is playing like an All-American: Over the last eight games, he's averaging 19.8 points and 9.1 rebounds. The Bulldogs finished the season on a 9-4 SU run, losing only to Kentucky by three, at Missouri in overtime, at Vandy by five and to Alabama in the SEC Tournament. Pitt has tremendous scorers but I expect them to be frustrated by the Bulldogs' length and tenacious defense. Lay the points.

The Panthers prefer to play up-tempo games as they averaged 76.1 points per game during the regular season. Meanwhile, Mississippi State allowed the 10th fewest points per contest in the regular season (61.0). In making this pick, I'm expecting Pittsburgh to control the pace and force the Aggies to play catch up. I'll go deeper on this play during the 4 p.m. ET "Early Edge" on SportsLine's YouTube page.

First Four from Dayton. Pitt has lost three of four and managed only 69 points last time out in getting slaughtered by Duke. MSU is on a different defensive level than the Dukies are. It will be tough to prepare for that unit on a quick turnaround for Pittsburgh. Mississippi State hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2008 when it was an 8 seed taking down 9 seed Oregon in the first round. The entire ACC is way down this year.