I am drawing a line through the loss to UNC in Coach K’s last home game because of the emotion, chaos, etc. If UNC can repeat that performance at Cameron, where four Tar Heels scored at least 20 points, then we are losing this bet. Duke has gotten better in every game of this tournament, mixing in multiple scorers and a very effective zone defense. The Blue Devils roll their rival tonight. This is how the Coach K movie is supposed to go, right? Go Duke!

Duke has grown immensely throughout the tournament, but now it will face a North Carolina team with top intel on the Blue Devils. UNC defeated Duke 94-81 exactly three weeks ago. Don't expect North Carolina to be afraid of the moment, and a deficit for Duke would spell trouble. Take the Tar Heels.

On the Early Edge this week, I made the case for UNC to go over its team total of 73.5 and for the game to sail Over, despite the high total. After further research, I'm adding the Blue Devils (at no more than -4) and looking for an 84-77 type of game. While the Tar Heels' defense has improved, they're facing an offensive machine that averaged 1.14 points per possession versus far superior defenses in Texas Tech and Arkansas. Duke shoots 37 percent from deep, best among the remaining teams, and has nailed 38.1 percent on 3-point tries the past three games. Lay the points as the Blue Devils cover in a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.

The last six meetings between Duke and North Carolina have gone Over, and the trend should continue Saturday. Both teams prefer a fast pace, and this number offers about six points of value. Both previous meetings this season had higher posted totals. The Over is 21-15-1 in North Carolina games this season and 21-16-1 in Duke games. The Tar Heels are averaging 78.1 points a game, while the Blue Devils are averaging 80.1. I think the Over is the best bet in this game.

Both these teams have won four straight since losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. North Carolina covered all four, while Duke was 3-1 ATS. These teams split during the regular season, winning on each other's home court. The Blue Devils won 87-67 in Chapel Hill, while the Tar Heels won 94-81 in Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Both of those wins were aided by a substantial edge by the winner in free throw attempts. Carolina has won 16 of its last 19 games. I took the points with the Heels.

I think the oddsmakers got both Final Four games pretty much spot-on with the spread, so I have no interest in them ATS. But I'll likely play the two together on the moneyline. Things are just setting up too perfectly for Coach K to go out on top. Can't believe this is the first-ever NCAA Tournament matchup between the schools. They've only been in the Final Four together one other time, in 1991, when Mike Krzyzewski won his first championship. While the Heels' Armando Bacot has been unstoppable in the Big Dance, Duke has the size to help control him.