Wow, a No. 2 getting 3 points against a No. 5. Houston may well win. But we only care about covering and Villanova is the best free-throw shooting team in the country. I'm good with that.

I'd love to wait another 2 hours to try to get the hook at +3.5, so I would highly advise doing so, but I am on Nova tonight. It's likely a death wish, Houston looks great, but it's hard to bet against the free throw shooting, guard play, coaching and experience of Villanova. I think they shock everyone and beat the Cougars even with Houston's recent defeat of one of the odds-on favorites to take home the ring in Arizona. Take the full possession or 3.5 if you have the patience to wait.

Houston is a veteran team that possesses synergy and gives undeniable effort. The Cougars' physicality and defensive intensity are going to pose problems for the Wildcats. A lack of a consistent third scorer for Villanova will play into the hands of Houston. Play the Cougars on the ML.

The greatness of Houston has been undervalued all season by oddsmakers. The spreads have been too low, which helped the Cougars go 25-12 against-the-spread. The selection committee also looked down on them, making them a No. 5 seed. The Houston defense posted better numbers this season than last year and again led the country in field goal percentage defense (37.4). It’s that defensive intensity that has carried the Cougars to wins and covers in all six of their postseason games. Houston is still cheap and should get the cover, but laying only -134 on the moneyline is better value than the spread. I also have a small lean on Under 128 total points.

Houston's suffocating defense stymied a gifted Arizona offense, and now the Cougars look to shut down Villanova's 3-point attack. Houston benefits from playing in The Alamodome, three hours from campus. The Wildcats covered versus Michigan thanks in part to the Wolverines shooting 50 percent on free throws and missing a slew of layups. When 'Nova faced St. John's full-court press, the Wildcats turned it over 13 times and escaped with a one-point win. Back the continually underrated Cougars to make their second straight Final Four -- and cover.