I was hoping we might see +5.5 but guess not. Villanova plays just one guy taller than 6-foot-8 and that's 6-foot-9 Eric Dixon, so Wolverines star and 7-foot-1 center Hunter Dickinson could have his way -- if Dixon gets into foul trouble, Michigan probably wins outright with so little size/depth on Nova. In addition, U-M might actually get something from senior point guard DeVante' Jones (10.4 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.5 rpg). He missed the Round 1 comeback vs. Colorado State with a concussion and then wasn't feeling great in Round 2 vs. Tennessee and lasted just 11 minutes. He's apparently good to go now. My one concern is that Villanova is the nation's best free-throw shooting team and that could mean turning, say, a 3-point lead in the final minute to quickly a 7-point lead, but we'll risk it.

I think this game will come down to coaching, and Villanova's Jay Wright is a far superior coach to Michigan's Juwan Howard. The Wildcats are undersized in the matchup, which is why I believe Jay Wright will draw up a perfect game plan for them to make things tough on Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson. I don't believe the Wolverines have the defensive ability to keep up with Villanova's high-powered offensive attack, and they struggle to defend the three-point line, something I expect Villanova to expose in a big way. Lay the five points with the better team and coach.

This game is going to be a battle, but when it comes down to it I think Villanova has what it takes to beat Michigan and cover a 5 point line. Nova is one of the most complete and effective teams in the nation right now. They have the guard play, shooting and defensive metrics needed to methodically win a game against anyone. They are liable to keep a game below 120 points on any given night and close out a cover as the best free throw shooting team in the nation. In a game where every point matters and games come down to shooting performances behind the arc and at the line, Nova is the type of team you want to back. By my analysis, it would take a red hot shooting night for Michigan to compete. I'm laying the 5.

Time and time again, we have seen a No. 11 seed get hot during March Madness. The time off between its first two wins actually helps the underdog believe even more. Michigan went through a roller-coaster season but has the size to give Villanova problems. Look for the Wolverines to have the better offense when it matters most and cover the spread.

Michigan plays its best when it sets a faster tempo, and the Wolverines have everything cooking right now. They're playing well, playing fast, and it’s how they’ve been able to take control against better teams – they've gone over the total in the last five games as underdogs. They’ve gone over in the last four overall and eight of the last 11. Villanova can play any style, and the Wildcats play along and they’re also No. 1 in the nation making free throws (82.5%). Every point counts. Just the over.

Villanova is experienced, fundamentally sound and lethal from beyond the arc. But Michigan is much better than its 19-14 record. The Wolverines' talent earned them a preseason No. 6 ranking. DeVante' Jones should be back at full capacity, and in his absence guys like Frankie Collins and Terrance Williams got more chances to shine. Michigan will have a size advantage; I'm looking for another huge game from Hunter Dickinson, who's 16 for 23 with 48 points, 17 boards and five blocks in two NCAA Tournament games. Back Michigan to improve to 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral-site games as an underdog.