Arizona is lucky to still be standing after escaping its second-round contest against TCU. Now, the Wildcats are not so lucky as they face the No. 1 defense in college hoops. Houston is rolling and will beat up on Arizona.

I believe the market is too low on Arizona and too high on Houston at the moment. Arizona is off an emotional overtime win against TCU while Houston just beat Illinois by 15 points. The Wildcats will have the best player on the floor in Benedict Mathurin (17.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and a pair of big men in Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko who should dominate the paint. I'm backing the team that's been better all season long in a buy low, sell high spot.

Look at Houston, back again, doubted by everyone, including me. They've changed my mind. I like what they put forward and with the rest and preparation of the weekend, I think they're winning this game and so does my model. I'll take the extra points to be safe, Houston is 13-4 ATS after 4 days off and even though it gives Kerr Kriisa more time to heal his ankle, I think Houston is going to show why they're one of the most highly rated teams by analytical models like mine. This game is likely to slow down and Houston should out execute Arizona since they're the better basketball team. Go Cougars!

In every NCAA Tournament, there is a top team that survives a game it should not have won. It typically creates great value against the spread in the team's next matchup. Houston has looked every bit as strong as it did last season, but Arizona is playing at a different caliber. Look for the Wildcats to make a big statement and come out as the new favorite among the Elite Eight teams.

I've been undervaluing Houston ever since the team lost arguably its two best players, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, to season-ending injuries a few months ago. Houston is one of the elite offensive rebounding teams in the country, but Arizona is the second-tallest team in the nation per KenPom. UH hasn't seen a duo like Arizona's Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis. Arizona leads the nation in total rebounds and set a school record for blocked shots. Guard Kerr Kriisa having few extra days to heal that sprained ankle can only help. Kriisa was just 1-of-10 shooting against TCU in the Round of 32 in his return from that injury, but Arizona outscored the Horned Frogs by 24 when he was on the court.

The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 against teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 against teams that average 77 or more points. Take Arizona.

Imagine losing four starters from the team that played in last season's Final Four and had the No. 1 defense in the nation (37.8 percent shooting allowed), and the replacements the following year play even stingier defense (37.5 percent) and make it to the Sweet 16 again. I'm talking about Houston. I believe in what Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson has implemented more than I do Arizona's first-year coach, Tommy Lloyd, who has done an amazing job so quickly. I’m on Houston.