The Cougars played three formidable opponents in the second half of the season. They lost to Wichita State, won two nailbiters over Memphis and needed a furious rally to edge Rutgers. Although I don't expect Buddy Boeheim to maintain his current shooting pace, this is too many points to give the well-coached Orange.

No. 11 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Houston in Midwest Region. The Cougars were very lucky to come back and beat Rutgers in the Round of 32, and UH has a DeJon Jarreau problem. Called the team's MVP by Coach Kelvin Sampson, the point guard is far less than 100 percent with a hip injury. Jarreau is the Cougars’ third-leading scorer in averaging 10.9 points per game and leads the team in assists with 4.1 per game. He'll play again Saturday but may not practice all week: "It's just a matter of how close to being adequate he is going to be," Sampson said. Jarreau's status and SU's 2-3 trademark zone are enough for me to jump on this number now that it's back to 6.5.

Syracuse comes in on a six-game cover streak with a 2-3 zone defense that is disrupting all opponents. Houston’s offense will have trouble with it. Houston’s defense is what has been leading the way all season, not the offense, which Rutgers shut down last week. Syracuse is rolling with momentum, and the offense is executing. Syracuse to cover is the play.

Houston has played one of the easiest schedules in all of college hoops. The Cougars haven't looked great in big games, and needed a huge rally midway thru the second half against Rutgers. Syracuse is on a 6-0 ATS run, winning fives games outright. The Orange are 13-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. On the flip side, Houston is 2-10 ATS as a neutral-court favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. My only concern is that the public is betting the Orange in a big way, but they do appear to be the value side.