Nichushkin has one point in this series thus far, but with the sense of urgency skyrocketing for the Avs, I expect the Russian winger to come out firing in Game 4. Nichushkin plays on the Avs' second line and typically sees plenty of time in Power Play situations.

Rantanen has 11 shots on goal through three games in this series. There is little doubt the 28-year-old winger badly wants to bury one against his former team. I expect Rantanen to continue peppering the net on Saturday night.

This is similar to my Edmonton play on Friday where I like to back home teams in must-win situations when I think we are looking at a long playoff series. Dallas has won two straight, despite playing without leading goal-scorer Jason Robertson and defenseman Miro Heiskanen. The difference in the series so far has been Colorado's struggles on the power play. The Avalanche have scored just twice in 13 PP opportunities through three games. I expect that to start evening out. This could be a higher-scoring game with Jake Oettinger and Mackenzie Blackwood in net. That favors Colorado. I think the Avalanche tie up the series with a strong performance at home.

They say always go with your gut, and my first instinct was Stars +1.5 at same price as Avalanche ML in Game 3, and now obviously I wish I had done that with Dallas prevailing in OT. Sometimes perhaps I do worry about empty-net goals too much. They are less prevalent in playoff games until we get to desperation time. But here, I just don't see Colorado losing three straight overall (last in January) and two in a row at home. The Avs are a dinged post or two from being up 3-0 with two OT losses. They have largely controlled the offensive zone.

Colorado has severely underachieved in this series, and there may not be a team in the NHL facing more pressure to turn things around than the Avs. Bottom line: If the Avs lose to a short-handed Dallas team in the first round, head coach Jared Bednar will likely be looking for a new job and several players will be playing for new teams next year. I do expect the Avs to respond here and even up the series 2-2 before things head back to Dallas.