Florida hasn't made it easy on itself squandering two opportunities to close out the Stanley Cup Final. On Friday I believe the Panthers will put together a complete 60 minutes and finally dispatch the Oilers. Florida has been the better team at 5-on-5 this series, highlighted by a lopsided 2.68 to .76 expected goal advantage in Game 5. There's no doubt Connor McDavid has been the best player, but the deeper team will emerge victorious tonight and eliminate the need for a winner-take-all Game 7.

It's no secret that this series has turned around as the Oilers are halfway to erasing a 0-3 deficit for only the fifth time in NHL history (and first in a Finals since the 1942 Maple Leafs). Still not there yet, but in the meantime Edmonton has unlocked the gate on the Florida goal, chasing Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 4 and solving him again in Game 5 as the Oilers have now scored 15 times across the past seven periods of play. Yet the "total" continues to be priced at the same 5.5 goals despite three straight "over" results in which 24 goals were scored. As the case earlier this week, the 5.5 looks too low again tonight. Play Panthers-Oilers "Over"

Really, really want a Game 7 after the ultra-lame NBA Finals. I need a reason to fade a home team in the NHL playoffs, especially this deep, and there just isn't one here. Connor McDavid has gone full Michael Jordan the past two games with the first-ever B2B four-point performances in the Stanley Cup Finals. It has been the best "Mc" performance since McLovin in Superbad ("Old enough for what? To party."). How can I go against McDavid in the home finale? Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner has some amazing numbers in Games 4-7 of the 2024 playoffs. You will have to read Friday's premium newsletter for subscribers to find out what they are. Sign up.

After looking like a potential dud of a series, the Oilers have since found their groove and have all the momentum heading into Game 6. Connor McDavid and Co. finally broke through against Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 5 and Game 6, and I see no reason why that won't continue in Game 6. I like the Oilers to defend their home ice and force a Stanley Cup-deciding Game 7 on Monday.