It's hard to believe I'm taking the Broncos to go over this number, but the Panthers are that much of a mess right now. Denver had a mini-bye week to prepare for this game, and I expect one of their better offensive performances of the year on Sunday.

I don't expect this game to go well for the Panthers. QB Andy Dalton was involved in an unfortunate car accident this week in which he sprained his thumb (no major injuries to Dalton or his family thankfully), and will miss this game. Re-enter Bryce Young, who was benched in Week 2 by new coach Dave Canales. Young was clearly a major part of the problem. Dalton took over and instantly produced offense, something Young has failed to do in his early career thus far. The Panthers haven't scored more than 10 points with young under center this season. He is 15-5 to the Under on this team total for his career. WR1 Diontae Johnson has been ruled out. Play Panthers team total Under.

It took a car crash to Andy Dalton for the Panthers inept head coach to go back to his kid QB. What an endorsement. Great for his confidence. And he goes to Denver, against the No 1 D in the NFL, down most key weapons. You have to throw it sometime, this pass rush will rattle him and Broncos will have ample opportunity to get their hands on the ball. Vance Joseph is blitzing more than anyone else Young is terrible against it, and this number should be a lot lower. Young doesn't want to push ball down field, but all those short passes get easy to predict and jump. I could see a pick six in his future.

Bryce Young gets the start against a Broncos' defense allowing the third-fewest points. Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen are out, and running back Jonathon Brooks is doubtful. Young has not thrown a TD pass in four appearances; in the two full games he played, Carolina generated 13 total points. Look for Denver to hold the Panthers to 14 or fewer points.

It just happened vs an NFC South team last week, Sean Payton's old stomping grounds. The Panthers run D is horrible and they are the path of least resistance running on them in the RZ. Panthers have allowed 13 rushing TDs already this season, and 38 since the start of last season (7 more than any team). Does Payton really want Bo Nix trying to smash it over the goal line? Panthers have allowed 2+ rushing TDs in a game 14 times since '23. Why can't Williams get two on Sun? A RB has hit this 9 times vs CAR since '23, including Bijan Robinson two weeks ago.

The Broncos made a playoff push a year ago - ill-fated as it was - not by Russ cookin, but by Williams grinding and a defense thriving. Sean Payton is perfectly fine playing that way, especially as he breaks in a raw rookie QB. WIlliams coming off his best game of season and while I fear him not getting 15 carries due to a blowout, against the failing Panthers, I project him to get home for us even on 12 carries. Denver's power game will be too much for the Panthers and I see Payton leaning heavily into that, wearing them down, and WIlliams breaking a few longer carries to get us over. I wouldn't be shocked it he hit paydirt more than once, either.

Sean Payton is perfectly fine winning ugly with his rookie QB, and he finally has the run game going a little bit and can finish drives on the ground without Bo Nix risking a turnover. I don't see that changing here, especially on extra rest against a horrible defense. Panthers are 28th in the RZ and have allowed 13 rushing TDs, 3 more than any other team. WIlliams hit paydirt twice in their last game and Payton rode him hard last year when they finally got ground game going. This OL should be able to allow him to walk in, perhaps more than once.

Carolina has given up 34-plus points in four straight, and just gave up 40 points to a Commanders team that lost Jayden Daniels early. The Panthers, who must travel to altitude for their second straight road game, might not have hit rock bottom. Denver had extra rest and continues to improve under Sean Payton. Even if elite corner Patrick Surtain doesn't return from his Oct. 13 concussion, I like the Broncos to win by double digits.

Panthers are broken again. Allowed 34+ in 4 straight and lost all those games by 10+ points. Andy Dalton and Bryce Young stink vs blitz; doesn't matter who plays Vance Joseph will blow them up. CAR 1-6 ATS, with a -13.4 cover margin, by far worst in NFL. CAR 3-10 ATS on road since '23, with a -10.1 margin, by far worst). DEN has 33-10 and 26-7 wins already vs better NFC South teams. DEN on extra rest and Bo Nix a force in ground game. CAR has 31st ranked D and DEN is 1st. DEN 4-2-1 ATS in 24, with 3rd best cover margin. Have covered by 16+ in 3 of last 4 wins.