Lockett has only exceeded this number twice in seven weeks and he caught 8 passes in each game. Of course I’m worried about garbage time but I’ll play against Drew Lock

For the third time this season, the 49ers are favored by around two TDs. This huge line is linked in part to uncertainty with Seattle's QB, but the public might be getting carried away. If Geno Smith cannot start, the drop-off to veteran Drew Lock is not substantial. Another factor is San Fran's recent dominance of the Seahawks. Not to be overlooked is 'Hawks coach Pete Carroll's 60-percent-plus win rate against the spread as an underdog. A few extra days to prepare after his team worked on Thanksgiving Day should come in handy.

Two key defenders for Seattle, linebacker Jordyn Brooks and corner Tre Brown, are questionable. Even if they play, I like the 49ers to score 30-plus for the fifth time in the past six games. Seattle ranks dead last in EPA versus the run since Week 9. San Francisco rolled up 31 points on Thanksgiving in Seattle, part of a five-game stretch in which the Seahawks have allowed 30.4 points per contest.

With Elijah Mitchell out this week, we could see CMC get a slightly larger share of rushes and receptions. Against Seattle two weeks ago, he ran for 144 and had 25 receiving yards. His medians over the last six games are 86 rushing yards and 43 receiving, for a total of 129, and that's with Mitchell as his backup.

Might as well re-name this prop to "The Mox Special" because I play it ever week and it's 9-3 thus far. The 49ers have averaged 30.2 points per game at home this season and have scored more than 28.5 in 3 of their last 4 games. In fact. SF has scored on 52% of their drives during their 4 game winning streak, which is second-best in NFL. Alternatively, Seattle’s defense has allowed scores on 48% of opponent drives over their last 10. Good for second-worst in NFL. The game line feels trappy but I have a hard time believing the Seahawks can hold the 49ers under 30 at Levis Stadium.

Kittle has gotten his legs under him as the season has gone on, and just saw 5 targets at Seattle on Thanksgiving, He catches 82% of all balls that come his way at home, and Purdy likes to look for him at home. He averages 5.6 catches/game at home and is only two weeks removed from an 8 catch game in their last contest at home. He had 9 grabs in the previous home game to that.

It's been a bit of a hit or miss season for Kittle, but he's had some monster games recently and Seattle is a team he has fared well against in the pass and they struggle against TEs. He didn't see as much of the ball in Seattle as I hoped, but check out his home/road splits: Home; 81 Y/G, 82% Catch rate, 5.6 catches/G, 4 TD Road: 47 Y/G, 67%, 3.1 catch/G, 1 TD I think he goes off again here with Deebo getting heavy attention after he carved up the Seahawks in Seattle.

Seattle's defense is broken and Purdy just sliced them up on the road. He is far more effective and proficient at home, where is averaged 309 yards/G with a rating of 132.6. 49ers YAC based attack kills Seattle's zone D and the 49ers have averaged over 400 yards in their last 4 wins over the Seahawks. Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC are all winning in the pass game right now and Kyle Shanahan doesn't mind keeping the foot on the gas against their rival.

The 49ers hit 24 at halftime in a short week at Seattle on Thanksgiving and only look better now, while Seattle's defense keeps hitting new lows. Even if SF falls off a little from last week's thrashing of the Eagles, 29 points qualifies as a step back. Seattle allowed over 30/G in November. SF averages 36/G in four games since their bye and they average 30/G vs Seattle in last 4 (4-0). Shanahan knows all the holes in Pete Carroll's zone and there will be free runners galore again. Purdy is almost perfect at home. Seahawks D is 25th in the redzone and I wouldn't be shocked if the 49ers hung another 40-burger on them like Dallas last week. No love between these rivals.