There are some key absences for Detroit with David Montgomery and Emmanuel Moseley out, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is active and Jahmyr Gibbs should benefit from Montgomery’s absence with more touches – certainly not a bad thing. Despite Atlanta’s strong start, I’m not yet a believer in the Falcons being able to go on the road and take down a Lions team that is basically getting nothing more than homefield advantage from the market with this line.

Atlanta's run-heavy, clock-eating approach makes it difficult for either side to create separation. The Falcons should trade blows with Detroit's potent offense and the key number plus the hook provides some value.

Kyle Pitts has 91% and 92% route participation in consecutive weeks with an ADOT of 13.5 yards. Those are both elite marks, especially at the TE position and now faces a Lions defense that has surrendered the most yards to the TE position this season. Pitts 30% air yard share is also the highest of all TEs in the league. Big games are on the horizon and this has all the makings of a potential spike game for Pitts, especially if Detroit can push Atlanta. I'll gladly take a shot here.

The Lions have four starters out and one doubtful, but I bet the Lions when I saw WR Amon-Ra St, Brown returned to practice this week. He’s the safety blanket for Jared Goff. David Montgomery is doubtful and I think the opportunity is there to give rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs some more carries and utilize his big-play capabilities. The Falcons are 2-0, both at home, and rookie RB Bijon Robinson is making plays but I question Desmond Ridder on the road here. I’m on the Lions.

After getting out-carried in Week 1 by Tyler Allgeier, Bijan handled the majority of the Falcon's rushing attempts in Week 2. I wrote at length about Week 1's carry distribution being an outlier and that appears to have been the case. Robinson piled up 124 rushing yards and I expect another big performance in a dome, on a fast track, in a game with a large total in what projects to be a potential shootout. Not to mention a game with two rookie RBs going head to head that are likely to be compared to each for years to come.