The Jags and especially Trevor Lawrence have looked very impressive of late and at a neutral site, I'd take them. But in New Jersey in pretty bad weather conditions .. we have to go with the superior defensive team at home and that's clearly New York with the return of Pro Bowl D-Lineman Quinnen Williams. He has been a wrecking ball and despite missing Sunday's loss to Detroit has 11 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, 23 quarterback hits, three batted passes, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Could be trouble for a Jags team that lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a season-ending injury on Sunday. Jacksonville also is without linebacker and No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker. In their past 10 games where the kickoff temperature was under 50 degrees, the Jags have gone 0-10 straight up and 1-9 against the spread.

For the same reason I went under on Jags wideout Christian Kirk, I'm going over Lawrence on rushing yards as he's going to surely struggle through the air against that terrific Jets secondary and with the brutal weather conditions. Lawrence averages 3.5 yards per carry so he only needs to average 4 per and this skates over. Lawrence's 4.9 yards per rush this season is actually better than MVP candidate Jalen Hurts (4.8 ypc).

It's going to be bitterly cold tonight, which obviously will hamper the passing game and Kirk presumably will draw Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is the Defensive Rookie of the Year runaway favorite and already so good that teams aren't even bothering with his side of the field -- the Lions didn't target a receiver Gardner covered once on Sunday. Gardner has allowed only six receptions for 28 yards in 105 coverage snaps in man-to-man coverage. He is one pass defensed away from tying the rookie franchise record of 17.

Garrett Wilson has gone over this number in four straight games averaging 108.3 rec yards per game. The Jaguars allow the fourth most passing yards this season. Garrett Wilson has been the number one option for the Jets the last couple weeks. He should see the ball often and go over this number.

Evan Engram is playing for a new contract, and over the last three weeks he's caught 24 passes on 32 targets for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He should continue to be heavily featured Thursday. The Jets are elite on the outside with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed but below-average defending tight ends. Look for Trevor Lawrence to feed the 28-year-old Engram as he's finally realizing his vast potential. Go Over 41.5 receiving yards at +100.

The euphoria from Jacksonville’s come-from-way-behind win over Dallas should carry over just a few days to this Thursday nighter. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is performing like a Pro Bowler. The Jets must be jealous, with Mike White questionable after sitting out their loss Sunday and Zach Wilson’s days with the team likely nearing an end. The Jags were widely written off after five outright defeats in October, but all were by one scores. They’ve won four of six since, each against formidable foes. New York, by contrast, has dropped three in a row, during which the offense was limited to four touchdowns.