This number has come down enough where there's some value on the Vikings, which was not the case when it was as high as -4.5 earlier this week. Minnesota has never been as good as its record suggested this season, but this is too few points against an Indianapolis team that should struggle to keep up offensively. The Vikings are 7-1 SU at home with a 3-1 ATS streak and its lone loss coming in that disastrous outing against the Cowboys. The Colts are coming off a bye, but with Jeff Saturday leading the charge and Matt Ryan under center, is that worth much of anything? There was hope this line might slide to a field goal ahead of kickoff, but at this point, its seems like -4 might come instead.

T.J. Hockenson has gone over this number in five of six games with the Vikings averaging 6.0 receptions per game on 8.0 targets per game. Hockenson has been an easy check down option for Kirk Cousins. Colts have a terrible pass defense. Hockenson should see a lot of targets and go over this number.

We can all agree that the Vikings are not as good as their 10-3 straight-up record suggests. Still, this little spread is an overreaction to their modest stats. Lately, the Colts have had to rally just to distance themselves from Denver as the lowest scoring team (16.1 ppg). By some measures, the offense is even worse than the Broncos'. Motivation must count for something. Minnesota can sew up a division title this weekend, so it's full speed ahead against a relatively soft touch.

The market has sniffed out that the Vikings are not a very good team despite their record, as line moves against them have become common. But Kirk Cousins has played well when not facing elite defenses, and Minnesota only has one loss at home all year. The Vikings' home-field advantage is one of the better ones in the league, and taking that away means the market thinks there's only one point of difference between these teams. The Colts offense hasn't shown it can score into the 20s consistently, and the Vikings defense actually did a good job of limiting TDs in the two games prior to facing the Lions in Detroit. A healthier Minnesota team gets the cover this week.

The Colts come off their bye week, but they still have turnover machine Matt Ryan at quarterback so who cares? Minnesota will see the return of its best offensive lineman in Christian Darrisaw after missing three games due to concussion. Center Garrett Bradbury and Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith also are likely back after missing Sunday's loss in Detroit. Minnesota would clinch the NFC North with a win.