There not many situations in which the Packers can be trusted this season .. but against the Bears with an injured Justin Fields who could potentially get knocked out with one bad hit to his shoulder? It certainly makes sense to back the Pack here. Aaron Rodgers covers the spread 74% of the times against the Bears (7-0 ATS streak), and Green Bay’s offense has opened up a bit with the emergence of Christian Watson. Even if Rodgers struggles or Jordan Love gets inserted, the Packers' running backs ran for nearly 200 yards against the Bears in Week 2. I like it at -3.5 but love it at -3, which may hit before kickoff. So keep an eye out.

Both quarterbacks are banged up, but their situations are not equal. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers need not carry the ball to be effective. (In fact, he's better off not tucking and running.) The Bears' Justin Fields does. With an injured shoulder, he might refrain from runs, which will ease the burden of the Packers' No. 31-ranked rush defense. While these Packers are a notch or two below their predecessors, the franchise's 12-1 straight-up streak against Chicago cannot be dismissed.

Losing has become the norm for both these teams, with the Bears dropping eight of their last nine compared to the Packers losing seven of their last eight. But Chicago has largely been able to remain competitive during that stretch thanks to huge rushing performances from Justin Fields, who is now expected to play in this game. That's awful news for a Packers defense that had zero answer for Jalen Hurts' rushing ability last week. And it's not like the Packers are enjoying great health at QB, with Aaron Rodgers dealing with a broken thumb and injured ribs. Even against some of the worst teams in the league, Green Bay likely doesn't deserve to be laying more than a field goal on the road.

The Packers have lost seven of their last eight games, and it's the defense that's been the more disappointing unit with three straight games of 400-plus yards allowed. They just can't stop the run, and Jalen Hurts in particular picked up whatever he wanted with his legs on Sunday. That doesn't bode well for this matchup with Justin Fields practicing in full on Thursday. That's why we're seeing the spread drop in this game, but I think the Over is an even better smash spot with Chicago's defense not able to stop anyone after trading away top talent, not to mention Eddie Jackson's injury. Even if wind becomes a factor, this game should soar over the total.

I don't think Justin Fields is playing (helps with the Chicago tank) and it sounds like Trevor Siemian may not, either. Thus, we likely will get the Nathan Peterman Experience. Why on earth is that guy still in the NFL? Thus, I doubt the Bears score more than 13 points and I think can hold struggling Green Bay under 30 with Aaron Rodgers far less than 100 percent.