The Saints sure have a lot of people believing after their 24-0 demolition of the Raiders last week, but it’s fair to say the Jaguars game this week put that in perspective. New Orleans has been trending positively with Andy Dalton in for Jameis Winston, but it’s also faced a notably easy schedule to this point in the season, especially compared to the respective gauntlet Baltimore has gone through. The Ravens are down key players but have replacements for most of them. Lamar Jackson remains the X-factor, and the defense is getting a reinforcement with Roquan Smith joining. This line has come down far too much, and while I’m perfectly comfortable at -1.5, the odds are such that there's decent value in a straight-up play (look for -120 before kickoff as they just changed before this pick was submitted).

Both these teams learned on Thursday they wouldn't have their top wide receivers back this year, but it's a smaller loss for the Saints with the emergence of Chris Olave. The Saints look to be getting healthier (though the offense has played well despite its injuries) while the Ravens' injury report is a mess. Their passing game will likely have to go through the tight ends, but the Saints have been the best team in the league at defending TEs this year. The Ravens are also playing a second straight primetime game on the road here. I think Baltimore is the much better team when healthy, but this feels like a close game that the Saints cover more than 50% of the time.

The Ravens won't have No. 1 wideout Rashod Bateman (foot), while Gus Edwards' status is unclear. The Saints will be primed to stop Baltimore's running game and they can limit it. The Saints rank No. 1 in rushing defense EPA, plus they're outstanding at defending QB runs, which is critical versus Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been killing the blitz, but New Orleans rarely blitzes. Sticking with Andy Dalton was the right move, as he's played far better than anyone could have predicted. In four home games this season, Dalton has thrown five TDs and one interception. Take the points.

The Ravens fortified their defense with a trade for the NFL tackles leader, linebacker Roquan Smith. The extra day gives him more time to become acclimated. It’s nearly a bye situation for Baltimore, which is blessed with 10 days between games, having last played on a Thursday. Though it stands 5-3 straight-up, Baltimore always brings it; the losses are by four, three and four points. As impressive as New Orleans looked in its shutout of Las Vegas, it still has the graying Andy Dalton at QB. The Saints have dropped four straight Monday nighters ATS.