I have no opinion whatsoever on this spread. Don't much like the number. Do think Saints win at home, though. One of those tough early Pacific time starts for the Seahawks (don't think it much matters that NO played in London last week), who can't stop the run at all. Should be a big day for Alvin Kamara.

We're getting a discount on this spread because of Seattle's performance last week in Detroit, but it's a longshot to see the Seahawks keep up that level of production. The Saints outplayed the Vikings last week a good portion of the way and came out on the short end of a wild ending. Look for their defense to force a couple turnovers and lead the way to a decisive victory Sunday.

The Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, rolling up 975 yards over the last two weeks. But their defense is also a problem, giving up 27+ points in what would be four straight if not for two Denver goal-line fumbles. The Saints offense had 5.9 yards per play against Minnesota last week while missing its No. 1 QB, RB and WR. Clearly the Saints can move the ball in the right matchup regardless of personnel, and this has been the right matchup for every other Seattle opponent. Let's start thinking about the Seahawks like we do the Lions, as an Over team unless there's clear reason to stay away.

This is a smash spot for Andy Dalton, who looked great taking over for Jameis Winston in London. The Seahawks give up an NFL-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt and will yield a few big plays to Chris Olave. While the Saints have to play post-London without a bye, the Seahawks are traveling east for the second straight week. Running back Alvin Kamara and guard Andrus Peat are practicing after sitting out the three-point loss to Minnesota in London. Both are expected to play. Lay the points.