This is a difficult call, but for me, it all comes down to Tampa Bay's ability to stop the run. With Vita Vea back in the middle of an already stout defensive line, simply slowing down Jonathan Taylor would be a victory. If the Bucs can actually limit him and force Carson Wentz to try and make plays late in the fourth quarter, well, we've all seen how that can turn ugly quickly. With Tampa Bay nearly back at full strength from an offensive playmaker standpoint, it has the horses to keep up and run past Indianapolis.

The Bucs’ offense, potent at home, is pedestrian in away stadiums. The Brady Bunch averages 15.0 fewer points on their travels than in Tampa. And LG Ali Marpet, the unit’s best blocker, is a scratch. Indy has allowed just 22.3 points in the last six outings. Its offense is riding the shoulders and legs of RB Jonathan Taylor, but no D impedes the rush as well as the Bucs’.

This could be a huge letdown spot for the Colts after embarrassing the Bills in Buffalo last week. The Buccaneers -- with their No. 1 passing attack and No. 1 scoring offense -- come in favored despite going 0-5 ATS on the road this season. But I’m taking the points with the Colts, who are riding a three-game win streak and full of confidence. They also lead the NFL with a +15 turnover margin when no one else has more than +9. Colts to cover.