The Steelers have not looked good in back-to-back games, are a on a short week, didn't travel to Buffalo until this morning, are down two defensive starters in linebacker Robert Spillane and cornerback Joe Haden, and CBS Sports' Jason LaCanfora wrote earlier Sunday that Ben Roethlisberger's knee injury "has become a source of greater concern within the organization." That has effectively eliminated any mobility Big Ben had (not that he had much at his age). Buffalo is quite healthy and on a four-game cover streak.

The Steelers were -2.5 on the early line before Monday's loss to Washington and now Buffalo is in that position, a clear overreaction. Pittsburgh was playing on four days' rest, coming off a big win against Baltimore and missing at least five starters. It gets back at least three starters and will be well-rested. The Steelers are tied with Kansas City for the best record in the AFC at 11-1, so there still is plenty for which to play. Buffalo's defense ranks 25th in yards allowed per play but 31st over the last six weeks. DVOA has Pittsburgh second and Buffalo ninth.

The Steelers are stuck with their third game in a 12-day window. The disarray has been such that the team will travel to Buffalo on the morning of the game. The secondary is banged up, which would not be a major issue against the Bills of yore. But Buffalo has transitioned to a pass-first team with QB Josh Allen. Pittsburgh’s offense has been the pits, with 63 points in the past three games, and a breakout of dropped passes has been a culprit. Buffalo’s defense can add to their run of nine takeaways in the last four outings.

The Steelers were 2.5-point favorites in this matchup on the lookahead line, lost their first game of the season and watched the line swing five points? This is still the same team it was a week ago, though one that's a little more shorthanded on defense due to injury but getting healthier on offense with James Conner's return. That's a big addition in a matchup against a Bills defense that ranks 28th in yards per carry. And the Steelers' defensive absences shouldn't suddenly turn the No. 1 defense in the league per DVOA and points per drive into a bad unit, or even an average one. Thus, there's plenty of value catching points with this 11-1 Super Bowl contender.

Josh Allen just picked apart the 49ers; he's coming off his sixth 300-yard passing game. The Bills have 10 takeaways in their last five games. They're just playing so much better than the Steelers are right now. Pittsburgh really misses Devin Bush and Bud Dupree. Lay the points.