This matchup sets up well for New England, as the Texans allow an NFL-worst 5.2 yards per carry. Look for the Patriots to control the clock, force a couple turnovers and win their third straight. Lay the small number.

The Texans can't stop the run and New England is going to run it down their throats. That was a great game the Patriots played last week versus Baltimore. I think they build off that and cover this small number against the 2-7 Texans.

With this line moving well off the lookahead number and the Patriots coming off a big win on national TV, this is the type of spot where I'd look to fade the favorite. But the matchup is just too perfect for the Pats, taking a dangerous rushing attack into a game against the league's worst run defense. The Texans have given up 200-plus rushing yards three times this year, and their only two wins have come against the Jaguars. I trust Bill Belichick to solve this limited offense and walk away with another win, and getting this number under 3 is a definite value for bettors, though I'm not ready to fully buy in to the Patriots being a playoff-caliber team.