Putting a perfect Sunday at risk by betting against Tom Brady is a difficult decision, but it's one I have to make in this spot. Defenses are generally ahead of offenses early in the season, and without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots should need some time to gel. We all know how good New England is at home, but we also know how it frequently plays in the month of September, which is to say -- not nearly as well as it does every other month of the season. The Steelers have rallied together with the departure of Antonio Brown, and they have plenty of weapons for Big Ben. This will be a close game either way, but I want the points. Buy up to 6 if you can.

There's been some sharp money in Las Vegas taking the Steelers, but I see a situation where the Patriots should be favored by 7-points or more. The Steelers aren’t better than last season, and like him or not, Antonio Brown made them better. They’re worse without him. The Patriots have gone 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 home games and the price is cheap. Patriots to cover.

I like the Patriots to cover in this game, and I'm going to go ahead and hit the Under here as well. The Patriots should be able to hold the Steelers offense at bay by shutting down JuJu Smith-Schuster, and even though these teams have played close ones lately, those have come in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' defense looks pretty good with the addition of Devin Bush, and it's possible the Patriots O-line has trouble in the early-going -- you typically don't see a team trade for three offensive linemen during cutdown week. A total of 50 seems far too high, so this is great value.

Now that this line has dipped under Patriots -6, I have to hop on it. Bill Belichick will be looking for revenge after losing in Pittsburgh last year, and no one covers at home quite like the Patriots. I give them four points of home-field advantage, and the coaching edge between the teams might be worth two points on its own. Now factor in the Patriots' passing game looking much more robust than it did at the start of the summer, and I think the Steelers will have some issues on defense. The Pats also know how to close out games; only once last year did they win by less than a touchdown.

The Pats had beaten the Steelers five straight times (4-1 ATS) until last year's loss in Pittsburgh. New England is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 home games. Big Ben never plays well there for some reason. The Pats made a lot of defensive improvements this offseason and that will show up Sunday night.

Fading the Pats isn’t for the squeamish, but this is September. Tom Brady hasn’t had a winning record through the first four games since he was in his 30s, and now there’s no Gronk to lean on. The Steelers' improving defense held the Pats to 10 points in Week 15 last season, and with New England’s tilt toward the ground game, Pittsburgh should be able to keep it within the 5.5. Big Ben getting his first win vs. Brady in Foxborough is in play, too; this is a Steelers team motivated to show that it won’t miss two individual stars.