This is not about the return of Ezekiel Elliott. OK, maybe it is a little. But this is actually a pick for the Cowboys' defense, which returns a stout unit opening at home against a suspect Giants team. Despite being a veteran, Eli Manning knows he will be fighting for his job all season, and Saquon Barkley with a sprinkle of Evan Engram will only get New York so far. With Elliott back and Amari Cooper seemingly cleared of his plantar faciitis problems, Dallas is loaded and ready for the NFC East. With a packed crowd at AT&T Stadium, this should be a double-digit win for the 'Boys.

Since the start of the 2014 NFL season there have been 15 games that saw a divisional game in Week 1 where the home team was favored. The underdog has gone 12-2-1 ATS in those 15 games. That trend combined with questions about Dallas' offense (new play-caller, Zeke missing all of camp) and the Giants getting a full touchdown makes it hard for me to pass this up.

The Giants were very good at covering on the road last year, and I think they can keep this close. Zeke isn't going to play all that much, he just signed, why would they risk him? Dak Prescott has one good receiver. If the Giants put eight in the box and force him to throw the ball, Dallas could struggle offensively. Grab the points.

In what seems to be their annual Week 1 matchup, the Cowboys and Giants kick off in Dallas. Zeke, or no Zeke, the Cowboys offense will thrive this season. In this matchup against the Giants, it'll be the passing game that will find success, as the Giants have a lot of youth on the back end. The key for the Cowboys is simple: don't let Saquon Barkley beat you. Look for them to slow him down, and slowly grind down the GIants.