The Denver Nuggets likely should be down three games in their series against the Clippers. They were fortunate to win game one in overtime, and have had less points in each game so far. Offensively Christian Braun is averaging seven points fewer then his regular season average. Look for Braun to take on a bigger role offensively as the Nuggets need to re-adjust their offense. Braun has his best game in the series from a points stand point.

Too many internal dysfunctions on the Nuggets side. Denver doesn't have the same personnel as it did when winning the title two years ago, something that perhaps should have been considered before recently hitting the eject button on HC Michael Malone. The Clippers are an especially tough fundamental matchup for Denver because Ivica Zubac can defend the Joker better than most, but that's only the beginning, because the Clips have, for the moment, arrived at the formula to get Kawhi Leonard healthy and at peak performance when it counts in the playoffs. Kawhi's (27.3 ppg in this series) mid-range game is destroying the Nuggets, and Denver's thin bench added only 6 points in Game 3, with Russell Westbrook's foot injury now a concern. Play Clippers

The Clippers won by 34 points in Game 3 (first two games were decided by a combined five points) on their home floor. They are back in LA in Game 4 on Saturday and I believe the Nuggets are finished. LA rolls at home.

The Clippers are an excellent defensive team, so it can feel risky take the over on a points prop for a player on the Nuggets. However, the Nuggets have terrible depth and they might be even more compromised with Russell Westbrook (foot) and Michael Porter Jr. (shoulder) listed as questionable. Even with those two in the fold, Jamal Murray scored at least 21 points in each of the first three games of this season. He averaged 17.3 shot attempts during that span, 6.3 of which came from behind the arc. With the Nuggets looking to even up this series at two games apiece, expect Murray to at least approach 40 minutes and have a hefty usage rate.

The Clippers two bigs are creating massive issues inside for the Nuggets, a bad defensive team (which is why their coach and GM got fired). Clip Joint averaging over 50 points in paint per game in series. LAC averaged over 120/G in their final 15 regular season games and they shoot much better at home (39% from 3 at home, 3rd in NBA. Made 18 3s in Game 3. They have scored 110+ in 10 of last 23 at home, averaging 118/G. Clippers are 3rd in O Net Rating at home post ASG, averaging 120.2/G.