This is a bet on Stephen Curry's greatness, plain and simple. Amen Thompson is a world-class defender and Curry averaged just 17 PPG in three games against the Rockets this season. He was held to three points in an early April loss at Houston. All of this only makes me more confident in Curry clearing 24.5 in this one. We're talking about one of the greatest, proudest and most innovative scorers ever, and he's not going to let the Rockets get the best of him again.

Kevon Looney’s minutes vary drastically depending on the matchup. Houston is a matchup in which Looney is needed. He averaged 8.5 rebounds in four games against the Rockets this season, notching at least seven boards each time. I bet him to grab at least five in Game 1.

Houston geared down before the playoffs, giving rest to almost all of the starters save top scorer Jalen Green, who made a point of playing in all 82 games this campaign. But the Warriors aren't a normal seven seed, as since the Jimmy Butler trade, the Dubs are 21-7. True, in the most-recent meeting on April 6, the Rockets won by 10 at Chase Center as Steph Curry endured one of the worst nights of his career, hitting just 1 of 10 from the floor and scoring only 3 points. Don't expect a Curry repeat, and Golden State has also won at Houston (Feb. 13) since the Butler trade. The Rockets are making their first playoff appearance since the Orlando bubble of 2020. Play Warriors

Regular-season meetings between these two tended to be a bit tedious. Though don't expect Steph Curry to go another 1 for 10 from the floor as in the last meeting April 6 at Chase Center, it's worth noting the last three scorelines between these two this season--91-90, 105-98, and 106-96--didn't come close to this 213 for tonight. The Warriors are even more of a halfcourt team since the addition of Jimmy Butler, as his commando raids into the paint come as the shot clock winds down, and how long it might take the Houston offense to click after almost two weeks since last on the floor together? The Rockets also make their first playoff appearance since the Orlando bubble five years ago. Play Warriors-Rockets Under

We are projecting 8.6 for Fred VanVleet. He averages 9.2 so this is technically a +$$$ bet on a line under a player’s average and projection. We are getting good value because he comes in just 2-7 over 8.5, but I don’t put too much stock in this stretch. The Rockets wanted to get him 100% and fresh before the playoffs which is why he sat 2 of the last 3 games and he played under 30 min a couple times. This should be a heavier usage game for him given the youth on the team and his championship pedigree. This season the over 8.5 is 20-11 when he plays between 35 and 39 minutes and his 8.6 is based on a 36 minute projection.