The Houston Rockets give up the fourth fewest 3s per game, both attempts and makes. Anthony Edwards has gone over this number in all but three games, but he has thrived on open looks (49% conversion rate with closest defender between 4-6 feet, per NBA.com tracking). He won't be getting a lot of those looks on Tuesday with Houston's ability to switch across the perimeter and stay attached to shooters because everyone can keep their man in front. If Edwards is going to go over, he'll have to do it against heavy contests. I'll take the under.

Houston will not score enough points. The Model has them projected to shoot under 33% from 3pt range, going up against a team that holds opponents to 34% at home. This is a buy low spot on Minnesota because they are only 2-5 ATS at home but they still have a strong +8 pt differential at home. The Model makes this an 8 point victory for Minnesota.

This is the right opponent for Anthony Edwards. While he's only 1-3 to the over in last 4 games, he is 3-0 to the over against Houston specifically last season. Other Guards who average 1.5 to 2 average +0.3 more vs Houston on their home court . This was a prop hitting 58% of the time for Edwards last season at home.

The Rockets have morphed into a legit top 5 defensive team; they aren't running and gunning anymore. They protect the rim and are 3rd in defensive net rating on road. MIN is still trying to figure out its offense post KAT, and are just 13th in offensive net rating at home. MIN is 16th in pace at home and HOU is 18th in pace on road. HOU is 5-2 to the under, with 5 of those games totaling 215 points or less. Rockets road games have averaged just 216 points. I think they take this game under and force MIN to hit foul shots.