Denver should be able to score at will in this game and after some recent letdown, their coach is making it sound like he wants to keep the peddle to the metal tonight. A second-half slowdown seems inevitable but any key starters barely played in their blowout of Utah so I think we get a healthy first half run here to build up a big lead, knowing they will sit in second half. Denver could drop 70 in the first 24 minutes. DEN team total is too high for me at this point to play it, but this approach makes more sense given the talent imbalance

RJ Barrett is basically the last man standing for the Toronto Raptors tonight as they face the Nuggets in Denver. The Nuggets are a whopping 16 point favorites and I think this is a solid space to fade RJ. Conventional wisdom may be that he should see increased usage as the primary/lead guard but he really isn't suited for that role plus there is some massive blowout potential here as well. This was a similar angle to fading Harden yesterday who like RJ is more suited as a secondary option. Barrett also does not rack up a lot of peripheral stats so he will have to score quite a bit to eclipse this combo line.

This is purely because Denver should destroy Toronto, which is down four of five starters due to injury and up to a 16-point underdog, the biggest number against the Raptors in years. Jokic doesn't even average this PRA total (nearly so) on the season and really should not be out there more than 30 or so minutes ahead of a much tougher tilt Wednesday and NBA Finals rematch in Miami. Take your 26/10/8 and go rest.

I project Denver to go well over its assumed team total in this matchup, and Toronto will need to throw bodies down low to try to stop the bleeding there, leaving Porter Jr to get plenty of great looks at the hoop from intermediate and long range. Toronto is one of the more compromised defensive teams in the NBA right now and Porter Jr is shooting 54% from field his last 10 games and over this in 8 of his last 11 games. Scored 19 in just 22 mins in blowout of Jazz over weekend. Another Nugget regular should be fresh and primed for a hot start Monday.

Gordon is top 25 in the NBA in paint touch points and top 20 in attempts per game within five feet of the hoop and Toronto is very vulnerable there these days, 20th in points in paint allowed and 21st in FGM allowed five feet of the hoop over the last 5 games. I see a lot of second chance points and easy buckets for him and if this game stays close enough 20+ points is hardly out of the question.

Gordon is the Nuggets second-best paint performer to The Joker and he's top 25 in several key metrics around the rim. The Raptors are struggling mightily around the rim, they are gutted by injury and seem to be, well, aware that this is a lost season for them. Let's put it that way. Gordon averages 7 REB/G at home and I love him in this spot. Only played 20 mins in Sat blowout of the Jazz and should come out ready to rock Mon night. No Scottie Barnes should be great for his cause

Yes, this number is high but I don't believe it's unreasonable given the scope of Toronto's rebounding woes with Barnes and Poeltl out. The are getting mauled around the basket in rebounds and points in the paint and Denver - Jokic in particular - should dominate. He had 15 in their prior meeting. He's rested and at home. Opponents have 163 rebounds against TOR in the last 3 game, grabbing 39 more than the Raptors in that span. The Joker will lead the way here.