Getting a nice discount here as Giddey averages 4.4 APG. I also like this spot for him as he doesn't close out games for the Thunder so in the event this game is a blowout his minutes are likely to remain the same. Look for Giddey to have his way with a completely overmatched Blazer squad tonight.

Chet Holmgren won't allow this lull to go on. He is on a 9-5 stretch to this over but a recent 1-3 stretch that is giving us good value. The numerous injuries on Portland will give Chet a mismatch with just about anyone guarding him. He is a player of three-point stretches, and based off his recent trends it looks like he is gearing up for stretch of overs.

OKC has thrashed the Blazers but Portland playing a little better lately and I figure they can hang around for three quarters here, which would be enough to get us over. SGA had 49 PRA in their last meeting (111-109 OKC) and had 40 in just 21 mins and 35 in just 20 mins in Thunder blowouts of POR. OKC hasn't been great lately and thee are the kinds of teams they tend to beat up on. I project him to score 33-35 in this one, which puts us in great shape.

Chet Holmgren has been held to 15 and 14 points the past two games at the Lakers and Suns, but before that he scored 17-plus points in five straight. This is a great matchup for him against 27-year-old Portland rookie Duop Heath. Heath tied his career high with 39 minutes in Monday's 119-114 loss at Minnesota. He is in for another massive workload as Deandre Ayton (hand) is doubtful. Working against Heath on Monday, Rudy Gobert dunked his way to 25 points on 9-of-10 from the field. Look for Holmgren to score at least 16 in an OKC win.

SGA's MVP-level season has come at the expense of the Blazers several times already. He loves facing this backcourt on both ends of the court. We've been on this prop for a few weeks and it hit again over the weekend. He had 5 steals last time they met and barely played 20 mins in the other blowouts but still had active hands and was trying to take the ball away. SGA has 3 steals or more in 3 of the last 5 games and 4 of their last 5 road games. Blazers are allowing 10 steals/G over the last 5 games (2nd worst in NBA). OKC has averaged 8 steals/g vs POR

Portland has been getting spanked at home and this should be an ornery group from OKC after the Thunder got upset in two of the last three road games. The Blazers are in an 0-7 rut at home ATS and all 6 of those losses as a dog were by at least 10 points. In five of these games they have failed to cover by 3.5 points or more. The Thunder have two major blowout wins over POR this season (134-91 at POR and 139-77 in OKC) and another close win. OKC is 3-2 ATS in last 5 on road and 31-18-1 ATS after a day off and have generally covered against the lesser teams in the league. I want this under 12.