Orlando is a really popular pick tonight but I think Utah can remain competitive in what projects to be a low scoring environment. Paolo Banchero is a GTD for Orlando and even if he suits up I believe Utah can hang with the Magic.

If there's one thing Orlando does, its dominate at home. They are 19-8 ATS and SU with a +6 point differential. And with one day off, they are 25-8 ATS. Utah finds themselves on the opposite spectrum, -11 point differential on the road, 13-17 ATS. They struggle to rebound on the road relative to home, which is a spot Orlando dominates at home. Get this line under 7 while you can, as there is optimism Paolo Banchero and Jonathan Isaac will be ready to go by game time.

Utah is a different team on the road and the books struggle to peg their numbers away from home, as we've chronicled. I thought this might tick up with Paolo Banchero not ruled out yet and with the spread growing in Orlando's favor (as expected). Either way Jazz are ripe to give up 120. They have 3rd worst net D rating on the road, are 29th in road turnovers, 27th in opponent FG% on road, 20th in 2nd chance points allowed. Jazz have allowed 118+ in 7 of 8 road games, 122+ in 6 of 8 on road. Magic are well rested and giving quality efforts at home.

Any thought that the Jazz might be rejuvenated by the All-Star break and make a real run at a West play-in slot have mostly evaporated in the past week as Utah dropped two of three very winnable games, and thoroughly whipped at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Jazz looks to have no recourse on nights when Lauri Markkanen (23 ppg; only 11 vs. the Hawks) is off the mark. Contrast with the Magic, winners of 3 of 4 since the break, fueled by improving defense that hasn't allowed more than 109 points across the past five games. Paulo Banchero (flu) a game-time decision tonight, but Jamahl Mosley very comfy if Franz Wagner (22.2 ppg in Feb) in the featured Orlando role. Play Magic

The Magic have been much more productive at home than on the road. While they are only averaging 109.2 points per game on the road, they have scored 114.2 points per game at home. This is a great matchup against the Jazz, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace and have the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league. Paolo Banchero (illness) is listed as questionable after missing two straight. If he plays, look for the Magic to blow past this total. Even if he doesn’t, I still think the over hits. Over their last eight games, the Jazz have allowed at least 116 points six times.

Collin Sexton is in the midst of the best season of his career and has definitely shifted the narrative that he was a ball stopper that could only really score. Sexton gets a tough draw against an Orlando defense that is ranked 4th overall in Total Defense while the Magic play at the seventh slowest pace in the league. Orlando is also extremely stingy against opposing SGs and surrender the third fewest PRA to the position. You could also make a strong argument that Sexton is a regression candidate as well.

Books struggling to peg Jazz lines on the road. 0-4 run ATS and they have failed to cover by 25, 9, 12 and 34 points. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 7 and every loss has been by an ATS margin of at least 9 points. Jazz are 4-8 SU in their last 12 road games and those 8 losses average by 19 points. Magic on 5-0 ATS run at home. 11-3 ATS in last 14 at home. Those 11 wins have been by an average ATS margin 14.6 points. These lines ain't even close. Jazz just lost by 27 at Atlanta without Trae Young. I thought this might be -8.5/9.5, Jazz have one win in their last 7 games.