Former Pirate Trevor Williams (1-1, 7.36 ERA) was a terrific surprise last year for Washington but has regressed to who he really is this year: A journeyman. Bad spot anyways for the Bucs in a seventh straight road matchup with the team at 2-7 away. Lefty Andrew Heaney (0-1, 3.00) has been solid for the Bucs, who likely try to flip him later this summer. A few Nats regulars are out in a getaway game.

This is a strong price, especially considering other books have it as low as +175. Oneil Cruz has been strong against right-handed pitching this season, with a .944 OPS vs. RHPs compared to just .388 vs. LHPs. With Trevor Williams allowing an OPS over 1.200 to left-handed batters, Cruz is in a prime spot to drive in runs. Look for Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier—both lefties likely hitting ahead of Cruz—to set the table. If Cruz is batting cleanup, this could be a great RBI opportunity.

We would set the line for this game at PIT -150, as the Pirates are winning in 60% of our simulations. I like this pitching matchup in favor of Pittsburgh . Andrew Heaney has been solid through his first three starts of the season and has historically performed better at home, with a 52% win rate compared to 36% on the road. On the other side, Trevor Williams has allowed 3 or more earned runs in all three of his starts this season. Even more concerning for Williams is his massive 1.262 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters, which sets up nicely for Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds to make an impact.

James Wood is on fire and is one of the premier young hitters in baseball. I don't mind him lefty/lefty vs a guy who throws hittable stuff. He's actually been mashing lefties, going 8/20 with 3 HRs, same number as vs righties with 16 fewer ABs. Batting leadoff is bringing out the best in him. It's early but he has a 1.130 OPS vs lefties. Andrew Heaney gave up 23 HRs in each of the last two full seasons. Getting 9-1 return for a guy who has ridiculous natural power in this kind of groove, against a starter who was in the bottom 7th percentile in groundball rate in '24 and had an extreme flyball rate (31% or higher) each season from 21-24.

Nats-Pirates games are usually not as entertaining as last night, when the benches cleared after the Nats' Jorge Lopez threw very near the head of Andrew McCutchen. After Lopez was ejected, Oneil Cruz greeted Eduardo Salazar with a grand slam in the most interesting Washington-Pittsburgh game since disgruntled Bucs fans staged a walkout at PNC Park after the first inning back in June 2007, protesting then-principal owner Kevin McLatchy. Today, Andrew Heaney looks to continue his mostly-promising debut in the Bucs' rotation after spinning a 3.00 ERA in his first three starts. Meanwhile, the Nats' Trevor Williams was crushed by the Marlins last Friday, allowing 6 runs and 8 hits in just 4 2/3 IP of an eventual 7-6 loss. Play Pirates on Money Line.