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Unfortunately for Yankees fans, instead of the sweet memories of 1978, they are dreading comparisons to 1963 when the Dodgers swept out the Yanks in four straight. Dave Roberts has been comfortable enough with his pitching depth to use bullpen games throughout the playoffs and will do so again tonight as the Yankees have only managed seven runs in the first three games of this series. Luis Gil tries to keep the Yanks afloat and New York has won five of his last six starts, but the Yanks are going to need Aaron judge (especially Judge) and their other big bats to wake up ASAP or it's going to be too late in this series. Play Yankees on Money Line
The surprise of the postseason is that bullpen games have worked more than decently for Dave Roberts, whose staff looked on the ropes in the division round vs. the Padres and has allowed the Yankees just 7 runs in three games. The Dodgers, however, are also picking their spots offensively and have not been exactly tearing the cover off of the ball, winning 4-2 each of the past two games. NY is desperate to stay alive, and if he wobbles, Aaron Boone will not stick long with Luis Gil on the mound. Aaron Judge's barren postseason another cause of concern for the Yanks, but they'll pull out all of the stops tonight in what has been a fairly low-scoring World Series. Play Dodgers-Yankees Under
The Dodgers have taken advantage of the Yankees failure to hit in any situation, key or not, and now they're up 3-0. All three of the games should have stayed under the total if it weren't for a grand slam in game one that game would have stayed under. Games two and three fell a dead under. The Dodgers have gone over seven of their last nine games. For this game, I expect the Dodgers to have a couple of scoring runs where the Yankees look like a deer in headlights swinging at everything and the Dodgers keep coming with hits. I see something like 9-2 Dodgers in this game which would make it go over.
The New York Yankees are on the brink of being swept and the outlook does not look promising. Of the 24 teams that won the first three games of the World Series 21 of them swept game four and the other three won in Game 5. That is something that does not look good and from the way that the Yankees have sunken shoulders, horrible body language, and the embarrassment of overswinging, it will be hard for them to come back starting today. It's a bullpen day for the Dodgers going against Luis Gil who allowed 12 runs in his last three starts. The value is with the Dodgers, yesterday was when the Yankees had to come back and win then they failed. Dodgers win.
Near -150 for the Yankees moneyline tonight, after how bad they have looked in the first three games, is certainly interesting... Luis Gil would likely never be this big of a favorite against this lineup if not for a bullpen game on the other side, but the Dodgers offense has been humming and I have to take the +125 at this point. Credit to my colleague Matt Snyder, who already mentioned in his pick that the team who starts out 3-0 is 31-9 in this spot, so the numbers say to take the plus odds here as well. If the Yankees win in "dead cat bounce" fashion, I still would be very shocked to see this series make it's way back to LA. 0.5u play.
If it feels like the team going up 3-0 usually sweeps the series, that's because it is what happens. MLB teams taking a 3-0 lead in best-of-seven series all-time are 31-9 in Game 4. The Yankees' offense is broken right now and it's mostly due to Aaron Judge. Luis Gil isn't good enough to get this kind of line against a loaded Dodgers' bullpen, either. The Dodgers roll.
This guy is totally locked in, his ankle seems to be feeling much better and Yankee Stadium was built for his beautiful left-handed swing. Temperatures in the 60s tonight, so far from frigid. Freeman swinging bat like a guy who knows he is gonna win a World Series MVP and Yankees starter has a strong chance to come up small in a difficult spot tonight. I think he homers again over that short porch, probably on his first or second AB. I'll be sprinkling on the live line for 2B and HR. And the way Luis Gil walks people, good chance for him to be hitting with men on, not that it might matter to cash this anyway.
Luis Gil is in a tough spot for a young pitcher, and one who really struggled in the second half, specifically with his command. Dodgers are locked in and will take those walks and have been far superior team with runners on base. I trust Dave Roberts to match up like crazy in a pen game knowing he can end the season tonite. Yanks having garbage at bats, playing tight and being at home does them no favors in this position. They aren't scoring runs period, but really arent't scoring early in games. Dodgers have been jumping stuff early in games. Yanks don't have the depth in pen to match up if Gil gets very quick hook. Roberts can match up Soto/Stanton every AB.