Povich was more lucky than good last time out at Yankee stadium. I see regression. Under

I’m fading Povich as much as possible…plus the Os lineup at home on a warm night? Let’s go over

O's are suddenly in a funk, and when they are their powerful leadoff guy usually gets them out of it. Return home, where Henderson is deadly. Heatwave ongoing, so ball will be flying out of tiny Camden Yards, at least to right and right center. Only Aaron Judge has more HR than Gunnar. 37% of Gunnar's fly balls at home vs RHP go for HR, far and away best rate in MLB (Ohtani 2nd at 31.5%). Tanner Bibbe is only 50th% catching barrels, his fly ball rate is elevated (8% over MLB avg), he throws his 4-seamer 44% of time and it has a -13RV, with league slugging .556 off it. Gunnar working deep counts to get to fastballs and can ambush them early

The Orioles getting +1.5 at Camden Yards has been one of my favorite bets the past few seasons in MLB ... we just rarely get them any longer so will take advantage Monday before this flips as it has already at some books. The Birds looked largely lifeless over the weekend in Houston but haven't lost four straight all season. Cleveland likely will not have All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase available among maybe a few key relievers.

24 year old rookie Cade Povich will be making his fourth career start. This is a surprisingly hefty number for Povich whose line I anticipated opening between 15.5 and 16.5, which is where I ultimately expect it to close. He gets a very difficult matchup against a Guardians lineup that ranks 8th in OPS against opposing southpaws. Cleveland's offense is as healthy as they've been all season and this is is simply a big number for an inexperienced pitcher making his 4th career start.