Kutter Crawford has not pitched well since the beginning of May. However, he now gets a Phillies team returning from London and they haven’t fared well against righties over the last 30 days, hitting .231 with a .624 OPS on the road. The Red Sox have been middle-of-the-pack against righties during that same span, but Zack Wheeler has been going deep into games while holding his opponents to two runs, or less, in his last four starts.

Essentially this same play worked last night on Houston's Jeremy Pena, and I'm going to always seriously consider Under 1.5 hits when priced under -200 on anyone. Bohm was having a career season but is really slumping this month at 5-for-29. His season average was once as high as .366 but is down to .291. That's called regressing to the mean. Bohm hasn't seen Sox starter Kutter Crawford previously.

This is a tall order for Crawford whose season high is 7 Ks and that came in his first start of the season against the Mariners. Crawford gets a tough draw against a Phillies squad that sports the 7th lowest K Rate against opposing right handed pitching this season. In addition to being stingy, the Philies also have an excellent offense and this game will be at Fenway in what is an excellent hitting environment. Crawford has also struggled pitching at home this season where he sports a 4.28 ERA, compared to 2.62 on the road.

Look for runs Tuesday as the Philadelphia Phillies travel to hitter friendly Fenway Park in Boston. In each of Kutter Crawford’s last six starts the Boston Red Sox have lost, and opponents have scored four runs or more off of him in three straight home starts. I’m also concerned with Zack Wheeler coming off 114 pitches his last start against the Brewers. The most pitches he has had since July 2021, and following that outing he gave up seven runs. Take the over.