NYY have scored 164 runs in 1at 5 innings, most in AL. They lead MLB with 54 HRs in those innings (7 more than any team) and also lead the majors with an .821 OPS in first 5 innings. Lot of guys swinging hot bats and NYY have pitching advantage, too. Of every SP in MLB with at least 25 IP, Joe Musgrove ranks dead last with a 6.34 FIP in innings 1-5. That's 139th out of 139. I smell a sweep in San Diego today.

Clarke Schmidt recently delivered two dominant road performances, but they were the only two outings all year where he's completed six innings. That's because if he does pitch into the sixth, he typically gets rocked, allowing seven earned runs while recording just 11 outs in the sixth all year. He simply shouldn't be facing more than 18 batters in a game while surrendering a 1.026 OPS the third time through a lineup. The Pads have extreme splits that favor facing righties (113 OPS+), and I don't see them letting Schmidt get through six innings today.

Juan Soto leaves San Diego after this game and will not return until 2026 (if he remains a Yankee). After an 0-4 night where he argued with the umpire and showed frustration, I think he leaves off on a positive note and does some damage against Joe Musgrove here. In his career, Musgrove hasn't had issues handling lefties but he's been victimized by them this year, to the tune of a .329 average with three home runs allowed (all three came against the Phillies). While I do think Musgrove likely regresses somewhat against lefties, I'm not sure against a motivated Juan Soto is the time he makes strides. Also playing 1u on over 1.5 HRRBI (-135 DK).

We faded Schmidt last time on this 17.5 outs line and he didn't come out for the 6th inning after throwing 100 pitches through five innings. Against a Padres team lookin to avoid the sweep, I think they'll be looking to work the count on him and find any way to get on base and manufacture some runs here. The offense for San Diego has been stifled in this series and while Schmidt has performed well this year, his expected ERA is more than a run higher than his actual ERA, and it's unsustainable how many men he is stranding on base.

As the subject is San Diego, let's invoke the name of onetime local fighting Marine Ken Norton and say that the first two games of this Yankees-Padres weekend set have been a TKO for the Yankees just as for Norton against Duane Bobick in '77. The Bronx Bombers have outscored the Pads 12-1 across these first two games and the pitching matchup looks good for the Yanks again on Sunday, as Clarke Schmidt has enjoyed a solid May (1.812 ERA this month), while Joe Musgrove's season has yet to get off of the ground for SD, hindered by a stint on the injured list and with only a 6.14 ERA to date. Play Yankees on Run Line

Clarke Schmidt is having a solid season for the Yankees but he gets a brutal matchup against the Padres. San Diego possesses the 4th lowest K Rate in the league, however if we zoom in to the Month of May they have the lowest K rate by a significant margin. Meanwhile Schmidt metrics are solid, but one could argue he's performing above expectations.

The Yankess win a lot and when they win, they generally win big. They entered play Saturday 15-4 in their last 19 games, and all 19 of those wins were by 2 runs or more. Clarke Schmidt has been plenty solid enough, Joe Musgrove has looked lost and bewildered all season long, and this park plays just fine for the Yankees. FWIW Yanks are 16-6 in day games. This looks like a bad match up for the Friars