I like getting in here under 17.5 outs against Reese Olson, who has failed to complete six innings in 3/4 starts so far. He very well could pitch into the 6th inning again but to fully finish that inning is something totally different. Olson also has a Detroit Tigers bullpen behind him that's been one of the best in baseball and they're relatively rested over the last few days. Kansas City has some solid hitters in their lineup and over the last couple weeks they've been just about league average for OPS vs right handers, but that was down slightly from being a top-10 offense earlier this year.

Reese Olson is a talented young pitcher and the 24 year old is running cold on strikeouts this season. Olson possesses an impressive 13.7% SwStr% which is nearly 2% higher than the 11.9% mark Olson posted last season. He gets a tough draw against a stingy Royals lineup this afternoon but with his line at just 4.5, I would back him against any opponent.

Seth Lugo is averaging a career worst 11.1% K Rate and while his strikeout metrics haven't been pretty, I believe he's a positive regression candidate. The Tigers provide a get right spot and possess the 7th highest K rate against opposing right handed pitching this season. Considering Lugo's outs prop is projected at 17.5 and heavily juiced over, I like his chances to record 5+ Ks.

Won't be playing look-ahead totals very often but the winds are expected to be blowing in at Comerica Park for the Friday matinee and KC starter Seth Lugo has a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers are hitting just .214 at home. Their pitcher, Reese Olson, has made just one home start this year and it was quality. I think this will close at 8 across the board so wanted the hook now.

I make the Royals 54 percent winners in this road matchup which implies a moneyline price of -117. 24-year old Reese Olson is going to be a fine pitcher at some point, but I don't like the hard contact against this lineup.