Texas has yet to lose a road game this playoffs. However, if it wasn’t for some late innings heroics in game one, the Rangers could’ve been down 0-2. Tonight, they start Max Scherzer has allowed seven earned runs in 6.2 innings this postseason. Arizona just had 16 hits off the Rangers ace, Eovaldi, and now face Scherzer who allowed four earned runs to them in July. Brandon Pfaadt has been pitching his best in the playoffs and is backed by the better bullpen.

Arizona split the first two games in Arlington, giving the Rangers home revenge from game two. Max Scherzer has had two playoff starts and not even close to a Scherzer like performance, however I think after those two starts he will be closer to 100%. DBacks starter rookie Brandon Pfaadt pitched well against the Dodgers and Phillies, with a 25 cent better than average KW rating. He faced the Rangers in his big league debut and they blasted him for four home runs. My model has the Rangers taking back home field advantage.

You can either get 9 or 9.5 depending on where you want to shop. Arizona has only played four postseason games at home thus far and three landed well Under this number. Both games in Arlington went Over, but Game 1 took 11 innings to do so and Game 2 had a total of three runs scored through six innings until Arizona exploded in the final three innings. Both bullpens are rested tonight.

Texas hasn't lost on the road in these playoffs, which is truly amazing but also has to end. Why not here? Never thought I'd lean Brandon Pfaadt over Max Scherzer but the rookie has been vastly better than the future HOFer in these playoffs. It's the first time in World Series history that a multi-time Cy Young winner will start opposite a rookie. Arizona has won 18 of its past 26 at home, and I only need a one-run loss.

As these playoffs have progressed, pitching staffs are getting a bit threadbare, and bullpens close to running n empty. This could be an issue in Game 3 tonight for the Rangers as Max Scherzer has hardly flourished in a pair of postseason starts with a 9.45 ERA, and never lasting beyond the fourth inning. Texas, will gladly take its chances vs Brandon Pfaadt, who has fared better than Scherzer in the playoffs but unlikely to be allowed to stick around past the fifth inning. Remember, Texas had scored 26 runs across its preceding three games in front of Saturday's 9-1 loss to Merrill Kelly at Arlington. Play Rangers-Diamondbacks Over

Max Scherzer doesn’t look like himself. He missed the last few weeks of the regular season because of a shoulder issue, but made his return for the ALCS. He made two starts against the Astros, giving up seven runs over 6 2/3 innings. If he can’t pitch deep into this game, it puts the Rangers in further trouble because of their lackluster bullpen. The Diamondbacks, who will have the Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, are in a prime spot to take Game 3.

Max Scherzer isn’t the force he once was and his last four starts have gone Over the total. The roof is open in Arizona which traditionally adds almost 1.5 runs to the total. But the real key here is starter Brandon Pfaadt who opponents have had a difficult time against as Arizona has won his last five starts with only five runs combined allowed. Four of those five starts stayed Under. Pfaadt has been staying Under the total all season going 4-16-2 to the Under. Chase Field also uses a humidor, the same as Coors Field does. Dead ball and Pfaadt is where I’m at. Under is the top play.

Max Scherzer hasn't looked even remotely like himself in his two playoff starts as he looks to recover from an arm injury. It's entirely possible he'll be better in this one, but the odds of him outpitching Brandon Pfaadt aren't great. Pfaadt is really locked in now and though he was awful against the Rangers in his MLB debut in May, he's made adjustments since then (added a sinker and moved on the rubber). He's been great in his last two starts. The D-backs have a better bullpen, too. I like the Snakes to grab a series lead.