Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez hasn't pitched in a game since September 30th (1 inning) and hasn't started a game since September 24. Sanchez' numbers are good but I need to take off 20% from his rating. Arizona is going with Joe Mantiply and Ryne Nelson, giving the Diamondbacks average pitching and you know what the Phillies can do against average pitching. The roof will also be open which surprises me because the temperatures will still be in the high 90's. I'm not sure how true this is but the dry air (8% humidity) in Phoenix will take all of the humidity out of the baseballs. If that's true this total should be 14.

Im going to go back to the well with the Phillies as this team has done a fantastic job bouncing back after a loss. Surely they want to avoid the series being tied 2-2 and have to face Zac Gallen at home. It appears to be a bullpen game for Arizona. I like the Phillies chances to take care of business after losing a tight game yesterday.

It's been over three weeks since Christopher Sanchez pitched in a game for the Phils, and after they lost in four of his five September starts, not fully confident we want to back Philly in Game 4. Nor are we with the D-backs in what will be a bullpen game for Torey Lovullo with Joe Mantiply taking the mound at the outset. Arizona has scored only 5 runs across three games in this series to date buy if any of these games looks like it might be an offensive showcase this is it. Play Phils-Diamondbacks "Over"

Christopher Sanchez makes his first start since Sept. 24, a Phillies win against the Mets that ended a four-game slide behind Sanchez. Joe Mantiply will get an inning of work or so and in his last appearance in Game 2, he got one out, gave up three runs, three hits, and walked two. This will be the fourth start of his career – all three coming this season. The hot Phillies bats got cooled down in their first chance in Arizona with just three hits and 13 strikeouts, but they’ll hit today and so will the Diamondbacks. Over is the top play here

As noted yesterday, I have the Phillies in five here and I'm just going to play the Phillies every game, assuming that I miss one and hit four of the five. Game 3 was my miss. Specifically, I don't think the Diamondbacks' bullpen is deep enough to stay steady for a whole bullpen game. I do think Christopher Sanchez will give quality innings before the Phillies' bullpen is dipped into. Plus, the Phillies have the more explosive offense and it might turn into a slugfest. Finally, this is a pretty low number for the clearly better team.

As much as I'd love to go with my classic First Five bet, it's difficult to justify with bullpen games likely coming from these teams. I trust the Phillies bats and bullpen more than Arizona and I think we are getting a good price here thanks to the lack of a pitching ace for the Phillies and the fact that they are on the road. Phillies win this one.

Cristopher Sanchez vs. (probably after opener Joe Mantiply) Ryne Nelson? Yuck. I don't think the starting pitchers matter much in Game 4 as I expect both bullpens will be used extensively. Do believe Arizona came out of Game 3 with its pen in better shape considering the Phils used Jose Alvarado for two innings and Craig Kimbrel for 24 pitches -- although maybe it's not a bad thing if Kimbrel isn't available. Arizona has not even hit yet in this series. Feels like it is due. Also think the crowd will be a bigger factor with a 5:07 local time start on a Friday compared to 2:07 on Thursday.