Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
FanDuel. Logan Webb is making his first start at home this season, where he typically has plenty of success. The Reds are putting out an advantageous lineup for Webb, which includes six left handed hitters (Webb’s changeup plays much better to lefties).
FanDuel. Having only made 20 MLB starts since the beginning of the 2021 season, Dustin May finally looked healthy in his first start of 2025. May threw five innings of one-hit, six strikeout baseball against the Braves. He’ll now make his first road start against the Nationals, who’ve struck out at a league-high rate of 30.2% thus far. The lineup is favorable today, with CJ Abrams on the bench, giving May six plus strikeout targets.
FanDuel @ -110. Tyler Anderson pitched above expectations last season, with a 3.81 ERA despite an xFIP of 4.85. He’s a low velocity pitcher who will nibble around the strike zone (his 48.2% zone rate last season was 109th out of 126 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched). The Guardians, so far, have the 10th lowest chase rate as a team, and are seeing the eighth most pitches per plate appearance. And I like their right-handed hitting platoon to provide some pop against Anderson.
DraftKings. This is a very high line for Chris Paddack who was shelled against the lowly White Sox in his first start, and struggled with his pitch efficiency this spring as well. He remained under this line in 12 of his 17 starts last season as well. Even though the Astros bats have been quiet to start the season, they’ve taken a more patient approach at the plate (3.92 pitches per plate appearance is above league average).
B365 and FanDuel. Tanner Bibee makes his second start at the season in a favorable spot against the Angels. Typically dominant against right-handed hitters (career 25.7% strikeout rate and .283 wOBA allowed), he’ll see seven of them tonight against the Angels. I’d bet this line to -155.
Caesar’s. Love the starting pitching advantage in this one for the Royals. Michael Wacha should be able to hold a weaker Orioles lineup down (no Adley Rutschman or Ryan O’Hearn starting today). And Tomoyuki Sugano had a brutal opening day - he profiles as a contact pitcher, which does not bode well against a Royals team that feasts on finesse pitchers (.732 OPS and a .263 batting average in 2024).
DraftKings. Trusting the Twins lineup right now is a tough sell, but Spencer Arrighetti really struggled with his command on the road last season, especially in the elements. Today will be cold and windy in Minneapolis, and I’m willing to see if Arrighetti can remain efficient. Last season, Arrighetti’s walk rate (11.8%) and strike rate (62%) were both significantly worse on the road. Coming off an off-day, the Astros bullpen is well-rested too. Would bet to under 16.5 outs at 0.75 units.
FanDuel. Gavin Williams is someone I’m really high on coming into this season. Last year he dealt with an elbow injury, and didn’t look super comfortable when he did pitch. This Spring, he looked fantastic (26 strikeouts in 17.1 clean innings). In his first start, he had a tough strikeout matchup (the Royals), but did flash a velocity spike on all of his pitches compared to last season. The Angels profile as a below average lineup, both from a production and strikeout perspective and this is a very achievable total for Williams as is (he finished the season 6 for the last 12 on this line).
FanDuel (-125). Making his first home start at Citizen’s Bank Park, Jesus Luzardo has the tall task of trying to keep the Dodgers’ bats at bay. It’s early, but the Dodgers are registering a 130 wRC+ and .814 OPS thus far, while remaining patient at the plate (4.10 pitches per plate appearance is the second highest in baseball). As a power pitcher, Luzardo does tend to throw a lot of pitches, which should keep his efficiency down against the patient Dodgers.
FanDuel. It feels like the sports-books are pricing Kevin Gausman’s strikeout props based off his success from a few seasons ago. Gausman is coming off a 2024 where his strikeout rate (21.4%) was his lowest since 2018, and his called plus swinging strike rate (25.8%) was his lowest since 2014. We saw more of the same in his first start against Baltimore (four strikeouts), and he now gets a Mets team that profiles as one of the league’s tougher to strikeout.
FanDuel / DraftKings. Charlie Morton had an underwhelming Orioles debut, only mustering 3.1 innings pitched (7 hits and 4 earned runs) on 80-pitches. Even if he’s pushed to 90-95 pitches today, I don’t see him staying efficient enough against a Red Sox team that, despite not hitting much early, has registered the fourth most pitches per plate appearance thus far this season. With favorable hitting conditions on tap in Baltimore today, I like Morton to stay under this line.
FanDuel. As bad as the Braves bats have been out of the gate, this is a wildly high line for notorious slow starter, Blake Snell. He’s got incredible stuff, but with that comes a diminished pitch efficiency - Snell would have lead MLB starters in pitches per plate appearance last season if he qualified. And the Braves, despite not hitting anything, lead all of baseball in that same metric to start 2025. Snell hasn’t finished six innings in a start before May 1st since 2019 - I don’t see today being the first.
FanDuel. After a dominant seven strikeout performance on Opening Day, and coming off a spring where he struck out 24 batters in 19 innings, I’m liking Kyle Freeland to punch out at least five Phillies today. Despite being a contact-oriented pitcher for most of his career, Freeland has had early success with a new sweeper he unleashed this spring. Already with solid career numbers against the heart of this Phillies lineup, I like Freeland on this line.