Jason's Picks (2 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Zac Gallen has pitched on every big stage and Yankee Stadium in April is not a big thing for him. The Yankees' bats he's seen the most from their time in the NL - Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger - he owns. Carlos Rodon can vacillate in production wildly from year to year. I expect serious regression this season with so much on his shoulders and the Yankees without two of their top starters. The Yankees are overdue for a loss, winning again as I file this.
Kyle Freeland might have found something late last season and he presented himself well in his first start, but Nick Castellanos has 3 HR off him in 14 ABs. He's already swinging a pretty hot bat and Freeland's propensity to give up hard contract in the jet stream could be a problem. Freeland was only in the 38th percentile in GB rate, was 7th percentile missing barrels and 14th percentile in average exit velo in 2024. He's a pitch-to-contact guy without chase stuff. He's given up 5 HR in 18 2/3 IP at Philly with a .500 SLG. And I have major questions about the Rockies' pen.
Peep my HR write up on Nick The Stick. He has seen this pitcher quite well and loves to swing for the fences in this bandbox. Kyle Freeland struggles to get ground balls. I do believe Freeland could pitch his way into being a deadline piece for the Rockies but this is a bad match-up for him and I expect Castellanos to be up multiple times with men on base. He has 3 HR and 4 RBI in 14 ABs vs Freeland.
The more teams face Connor Gillispie the more they will like what they see. We will keep fading him, with a bad pen behind him and a shallow lineup backing him. I'm buying the Clay Holmes bullpen conversion, especially against the Marlins in a day game after a night game. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto swinging the lumber early in the season. Maybe we get Frankie Lindor back for this one, too.
We are big Jeffrey Springs guys around here. Dude was looking like yet another amazing discovery for the Rays and showing Cy Young potential before his latest setback. Jameson Taillon is looking like a guy whose best days are behind him and I believe in this A's lineup and expect them to have a decent advantage over time playing in their minor league ballpark.
Pepiot has ace stuff and another offseason in the Rays pitching incubator under his belt. He allowed 1 ER in 4 of his last 6 outings dating to '24. He understands how to limit damage and has swing-and-miss stuff when he needs it. The Pirates bats are slumbering and not sure they wake up in a day game vs this young arm here. Pirates have scored just 12 runs in innings 1-6 all season, with a .574 OPS in this innings (24th() and a 27.6% K rate (6th worst in MLB). They are already pressing and we will get some "B" options in a day game after a night game.
Paul Skenes is most likely not going to throw a complete-game shutout, especially as he still builds up innings after being shutdown early last year (though we did get a 9-inning CG last night by Nathan Eovaldi, how bout that?). The Pirates' pen stinks, the closer was just sent to AAA and their ABs have been pathetic overall this season. Ryan Pepiot is a legit arm for the Rays, they have a pen and they are already getting scrappy production from unusual sources (the Rays way). Vibes feel way off for the Bucs.
Are the Brewers already out of arms? They have injuries to a pen that has been awful and they are already starting an opener who isn't going to miss a lot of bats. Their pen has 19 IP allowing 26 ER, while the starters have only thrown 14 IP. Yikes. Chad Patrick just got lit up on Saturday. Michael Lorenzen isn't stellar on the bump for the Royals; he walks guys and gives up loud contact. Going to fade the pitching here. Brewers seem intent on allowing 8 run a game themselves. It wasn't just the Yankees and their torpedo bats that are a problem for them.
Break up the White Sox. I get it, but come on man. I know the Twins started ridiculously slow last year too, but Simeon Woods Richardson is a legit starter and the Pale Hose are starting a Rule V kid with 5 career appearances in AAA. I know Shane Smith had a great spring but the Twins need to get off the mat here.
Corbin Burnes threw a gem in his O's debut a year ago, and I expect a top outing here, too. He's always thrived vs. the AL East and allowed a .162/.205/.324 slashline vs NYY last season. The D-Backs are crushing the ball just like the Yankees. Burnes knows how to limit damage vs. the Yanks' big boppers. There will be nerves with young Will Warren on the bump for NY. He had a nice spring but a 10.32 ERA in 22 2/3 in 2024. Not sure Yankees are going to get as many cheapy HRs in early April night game.
Juan Soto is heating up and even if Frankie Lindor is still out for the birth of a child they can get people on around Soto. Sandy Alcantara is a stud but he is still working his way back from a long absence and isn't himself yet. Soto has a .289 avg and .869 OBO in 38 career ABs vs him. Marlins pen is pretty suspect after they gutted it last year. With Alcantara on the trade block it could be a quick hook for him, too.
The greatest baseball player on the planet getting a day off after an early start to the season against an opener? I'll bite every time. And the opener is a righty? Works for me. This hitter getting a chance to see a bunch of different pitchers is a loaded lineup sounds just fine to me. And of course he's locked in and off to a fast starter, because he's Ohtani. And he's in his home park. Check.
We are very big on Jackson Jobe and we like this as a launching off point. He faces a lineup that already looks to lack the clutch gene - again - and is swing and miss heavy and homer dependent. Jobe has always kept the ball in the park and this park should play in his favor. Tigers have an elite bullpen and are invested in this kid long-term and will be careful here. AJ Hinch can mix and match and might be willing to take four clean innings from his rookie starter and call it a day. Jobe for Al ROY is a strong play for us. Kid has legit stuff and Tigers are solid developing arms. Seattle already has 44 Ks.